Helsingborg 0-3 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helsingborg at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Landskrona BoIS travel to Olympia to take on Helsingborg. The game is scheduled for Thursday 11 June 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Helsingborg have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Helsingborg's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Olympia this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Landskrona BoIS's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Helsingborg) versus 1.20 (Landskrona BoIS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Helsingborg, 3 for Landskrona BoIS and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Helsingborg in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 43% versus Landskrona BoIS 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 52% | Landskrona BoIS 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.37 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 1.075 / defence 1.044 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.874 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.418. Data: 40 Helsingborg games / 40 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 39% | Draw 26% | Landskrona BoIS 35%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Landskrona BoIS 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Helsingborg as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helsingborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Helsingborg 50% | Landskrona BoIS 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Thursday 11 Jun 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 39% | Draw 26% | Landskrona BoIS 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Helsingborg 1.37 / Landskrona BoIS 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 1.075 / def 1.044 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.874 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.418 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Landskrona BoIS xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 11 June 2026 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Helsingborg 0 - 3 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 39% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (8 meetings): Helsingborg 3W | Draws 2 | Landskrona BoIS 3W.
What form are Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Helsingborg's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Landskrona BoIS's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus Helsingborg's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
39%
2.58
26%
3.85
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.67
1.29
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
11%
9.41
9%
11.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Helsingborg and 1.29 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Helsingborg have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 24W 16D 20L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Landskrona BoIS's form line: 24W 15D 21L from 60 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Helsingborg on 1.47 PPG, Landskrona BoIS on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Helsingborg have posted 1.43 PPG from 30 outings (11W 10D 9L).
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 11W 5D 14L from 30 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Helsingborg are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.38 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Current Season
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 24W 16D 20L in their last 60 games (1.47 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 24W 15D 21L in their last 60 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Helsingborg's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.43 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Helsingborg or Landskrona BoIS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Landskrona BoIS in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 11 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jun 2026, when Landskrona BoIS won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Helsingborg's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Helsingborg
2
Draws
4
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS?
From 9 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 3, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 11 June 2026, when Helsingborg 0-3 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 47%, Landskrona BoIS 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Helsingborg) and 57% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Helsingborg have failed to score in 33% of games; Landskrona BoIS in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play Landskrona BoIS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 57% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Helsingborg's recent games and 57% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Landskrona BoIS run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Helsingborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Helsingborg 0-3 at Olympia, Regular Season - 11, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.37 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.29 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Helsingborg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Landskrona BoIS outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 1.07 / defence 1.04 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.87 / defence 0.86, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 39% | Draw 26% | Landskrona BoIS 35%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Landskrona BoIS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 52%, Landskrona BoIS 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helsingborg 1.47 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock. Helsingborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.