Helsingborg 1-1 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helsingborg at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Helsingborg vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Degerfors IF travel to Olympia to take on Helsingborg. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 13 August 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Helsingborg — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Olympia, Helsingborg have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Superettan games this season, Degerfors IF have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Helsingborg at 1.90 PPG versus Degerfors IF's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Degerfors IF, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Helsingborg.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Degerfors IF winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Degerfors IF have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Helsingborg trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Degerfors IF trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 49% versus Degerfors IF 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 43% | Degerfors IF 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.31 xG and Degerfors IF 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.916 / defence 0.902 | Degerfors IF attack 0.932 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.197. Data: 47 Helsingborg games / 17 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 43% | Draw 29% | Degerfors IF 28%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Degerfors IF 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Helsingborg as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helsingborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Helsingborg 40% | Degerfors IF 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Aug 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 43% | Draw 29% | Degerfors IF 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Helsingborg 1.31 / Degerfors IF 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.916 / def 0.902 | Degerfors IF attack 0.932 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Degerfors IF xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Helsingborg vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 13 August 2024 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Degerfors IF?
Helsingborg 1 - 1 Degerfors IF.
Where is Helsingborg vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Degerfors IF part of?
Helsingborg vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 43% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Helsingborg and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Degerfors IF?
Record (3 meetings): Helsingborg 0W | Draws 0 | Degerfors IF 3W.
What form are Helsingborg and Degerfors IF in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Degerfors IF (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Helsingborg's attack at 0.92x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Degerfors IF's attack versus Helsingborg's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
43%
2.34
29%
3.40
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.31
1.01
Degerfors IF xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
8%
13.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Helsingborg and 1.01 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Helsingborg come into this having played 47 games, going 16W 14D 17L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Degerfors IF sit at 1.19 PPG from 47 outings (15W 11D 21L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Helsingborg on 1.32 PPG, Degerfors IF on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Helsingborg's home form reads 9W 7D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Degerfors IF have taken 0.83 points per game from 23 outings (4W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Helsingborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Helsingborg are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.30 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF in 66%.
Last 47 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 16W 14D 17L in their last 47 games (1.32 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 15W 11D 21L in their last 47 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or Degerfors IF away?
Helsingborg's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.48 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Helsingborg and Degerfors IF runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Helsingborg's record when hosting Degerfors IF specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Helsingborg
1
Draws
3
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Degerfors IF?
From 4 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 0, Degerfors IF have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 13 August 2024, when Helsingborg 1-1 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and Degerfors IF?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 48%, Degerfors IF 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Helsingborg) and 52% (Degerfors IF).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Helsingborg have failed to score in 30% of games; Degerfors IF in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play Degerfors IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 61% of Degerfors IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Helsingborg's recent games and 52% of Degerfors IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Helsingborg and Degerfors IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helsingborg and Degerfors IF finished level at 1-1 at Olympia, Regular Season - 18, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.31 xG and Degerfors IF 1.01 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.92 / defence 0.90 against Degerfors IF attack 0.93 / defence 1.01, drawn from 47/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 43% | Draw 29% | Degerfors IF 28%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 43%, Degerfors IF 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helsingborg 1.32 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.