GIF Sundsvall 3-2 Vasalund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Vasalund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Vasalund travel to NP3 Arena to take on GIF Sundsvall. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 May 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.91 xG and Vasalund 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.198 / defence 1.197 | Vasalund attack 0.898 / defence 1.665. League average goals — home 0.959 / away 0.851. Vasalund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.665 — this is suppressing GIF Sundsvall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 GIF Sundsvall games / 5 Vasalund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 59% | Draw 25% | Vasalund 16%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Vasalund 6.25. The model has a clear lean to GIF Sundsvall (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, GIF Sundsvall are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Vasalund | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 15 May 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 59% | Draw 25% | Vasalund 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.91 / Vasalund 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.198 / def 1.197 | Vasalund attack 0.898 / def 1.665 | league avg home 0.959 / away 0.851 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Vasalund xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Vasalund kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Vasalund kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 15 May 2021 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Vasalund?
GIF Sundsvall 3 - 2 Vasalund.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Vasalund being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Vasalund part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Vasalund is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Vasalund?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 59% chance of winning, Vasalund a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Vasalund?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Vasalund will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Vasalund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Vasalund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Vasalund in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates GIF Sundsvall's attack at 1.20x the league average against Vasalund's defence at 1.67x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vasalund's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
59%
1.69
25%
3.97
16%
6.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.83
0.92
Vasalund xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
6.35
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
15%
6.77
Win to Nil
24%
4.23
2%
43.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.4 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Vasalund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Vasalund expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 0.92 for Vasalund, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Vasalund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Pre-Season
Vasalund
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
GIF Sundsvall
0
Draws
0
Vasalund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Vasalund?
From 2 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, Vasalund have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Vasalund last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2021, when Vasalund 1-2 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Vasalund?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Vasalund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as GIF Sundsvall edge out Vasalund 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Vasalund 3-2 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.91 xG and Vasalund 0.92 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vasalund outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 1.20 / defence 1.20 against Vasalund attack 0.90 / defence 1.67, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 59% | Draw 25% | Vasalund 16%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.