GIF Sundsvall 1-0 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GIF Sundsvall host Orgryte IS at NP3 Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 30 October 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, GIF Sundsvall stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall's home record at NP3 Arena: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Orgryte IS — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Orgryte IS have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — GIF Sundsvall at 1.20 PPG versus Orgryte IS's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, Orgryte IS 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2023, ended 0–1 with Orgryte IS winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
GIF Sundsvall trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Orgryte IS trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 58% versus Orgryte IS 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 61% | Orgryte IS 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.31 xG and Orgryte IS 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.861 / defence 1.276 | Orgryte IS attack 0.929 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.594 / away 1.282. Data: 27 GIF Sundsvall games / 57 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 33% | Draw 26% | Orgryte IS 42%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Orgryte IS 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Orgryte IS as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: GIF Sundsvall 70% | Orgryte IS 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 30 Oct 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 33% | Draw 26% | Orgryte IS 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.31 / Orgryte IS 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.861 / def 1.276 | Orgryte IS attack 0.929 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.594 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Orgryte IS xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 30 October 2023 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS?
GIF Sundsvall 1 - 0 Orgryte IS.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 33% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS?
Record (3 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 1W | Draws 0 | Orgryte IS 2W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Orgryte IS (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates GIF Sundsvall's attack at 0.86x the league average against Orgryte IS's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
33%
3.07
26%
3.91
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.83
1.52
Orgryte IS xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
7%
14.04
11%
8.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.7 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.52 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, GIF Sundsvall have picked up 0.79 PPG on a 12W 9D 36L record — L-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orgryte IS's form line: 15W 18D 24L from 57 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: GIF Sundsvall on 0.79 PPG, Orgryte IS on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, GIF Sundsvall have posted 1.00 PPG from 28 outings (8W 4D 16L).
On the road, Orgryte IS have gone 9W 7D 12L from 28 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.30 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 12W 9D 36L in their last 57 games (0.79 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 15W 18D 24L in their last 57 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Orgryte IS away?
Orgryte IS's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.00 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting Orgryte IS specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
GIF Sundsvall
4
Draws
2
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS?
From 8 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, Orgryte IS have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when GIF Sundsvall 1-1 Orgryte IS.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 68%, Orgryte IS 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for GIF Sundsvall and 54% for Orgryte IS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Orgryte IS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 57% of Orgryte IS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of GIF Sundsvall's matches and 54% of Orgryte IS's.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as GIF Sundsvall defy the odds to beat Orgryte IS 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Orgryte IS 1-0 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.31 xG and Orgryte IS 1.52 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Orgryte IS landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.86 / defence 1.28 against Orgryte IS attack 0.93 / defence 0.96, drawn from 27/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 33% | Draw 26% | Orgryte IS 42%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual GIF Sundsvall win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 61%, Orgryte IS 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 0.79 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIF Sundsvall win broke the near-deadlock. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.