GIF Sundsvall 2-0 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GIF Sundsvall host Landskrona BoIS at NP3 Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, GIF Sundsvall have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. GIF Sundsvall haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at NP3 Arena, GIF Sundsvall have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at NP3 Arena.
Landskrona BoIS — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (GIF Sundsvall) versus 2.10 (Landskrona BoIS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for GIF Sundsvall, 1 for Landskrona BoIS and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with GIF Sundsvall winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
GIF Sundsvall trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Landskrona BoIS trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 53% versus Landskrona BoIS 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 40% | Landskrona BoIS 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.35 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.963 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.613 / away 1.219. Data: 0 GIF Sundsvall games / 30 Landskrona BoIS games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 36% | Draw 28% | Landskrona BoIS 36%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Landskrona BoIS 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: GIF Sundsvall 40% | Landskrona BoIS 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 36% | Draw 28% | Landskrona BoIS 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.35 / Landskrona BoIS 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.963 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.613 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Landskrona BoIS xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS?
GIF Sundsvall 2 - 0 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 36% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (2 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 1W | Draws 0 | Landskrona BoIS 1W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (0.85) and Landskrona BoIS's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
36%
2.78
28%
3.57
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.70
1.35
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
9%
10.72
9%
10.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.2 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.35 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, GIF Sundsvall have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 15W 8D 7L record — D-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. GIF Sundsvall haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Landskrona BoIS's form line: 11W 11D 8L from 30 games, 1.47 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: GIF Sundsvall on 1.77 PPG, Landskrona BoIS on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, GIF Sundsvall have posted 2.07 PPG from 15 outings (9W 4D 2L).
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 3W 6D 6L from 15 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Landskrona BoIS's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIF Sundsvall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.33 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Pre-Season
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 15W 8D 7L in their last 30 games (1.77 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 11W 11D 8L in their last 30 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 2.07 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.00 PPG.
Have GIF Sundsvall or Landskrona BoIS been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Landskrona BoIS in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 18 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
GIF Sundsvall
2
Draws
4
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS?
From 9 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 3, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 2-1 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 47%, Landskrona BoIS 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (GIF Sundsvall) and 47% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Landskrona BoIS in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Landskrona BoIS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of GIF Sundsvall's recent matches and 47% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 47% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIF Sundsvall cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Landskrona BoIS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Landskrona BoIS 2-0 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.35 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.35 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.96 / defence 0.99, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 36% | Draw 28% | Landskrona BoIS 36%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 40%, Landskrona BoIS 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.77 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIF Sundsvall win broke the near-deadlock. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.