GIF Sundsvall 1-3 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as GIF Sundsvall face IFK Norrkoping.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
IFK Norrkoping travel to NP3 Arena to take on GIF Sundsvall in Superettan (matchday 6). The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, GIF Sundsvall stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
GIF Sundsvall at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — GIF Sundsvall are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
IFK Norrkoping — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
IFK Norrkoping's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (GIF Sundsvall) versus 1.10 (IFK Norrkoping). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 80% of IFK Norrkoping's (from GIF Sundsvall's last 10 home games and IFK Norrkoping's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for GIF Sundsvall, 2 for IFK Norrkoping and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 2 Oct 2022, ended GIF Sundsvall 1–3 IFK Norrkoping — a IFK Norrkoping win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
GIF Sundsvall trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
IFK Norrkoping trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — GIF Sundsvall 57% and IFK Norrkoping 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 47% | IFK Norrkoping 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.55 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.968 / defence 1.239 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.707 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.334. IFK Norrkoping's attack rating of 0.707 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.17. GIF Sundsvall's defence rating of 1.239 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing IFK Norrkoping's projected output up. Data: built from GIF Sundsvall's last 35 games and IFK Norrkoping's last 5.
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 46% | Draw 25% | IFK Norrkoping 29%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.16 | Draw 3.98 | IFK Norrkoping 3.50. GIF Sundsvall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (GIF Sundsvall's last 10 home games and IFK Norrkoping's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: GIF Sundsvall 60% (last 10 home games) | IFK Norrkoping 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Superettan, matchday 6 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 46% | Draw 25% | IFK Norrkoping 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.55 / IFK Norrkoping 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.968 / def 1.239 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.707 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.17
IFK Norrkoping xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Norrkoping FAQs
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 9 May 2026 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Norrkoping?
GIF Sundsvall 1 - 3 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Norrkoping is a Superettan fixture (matchday 6) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 46% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and IFK Norrkoping will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates GIF Sundsvall's attack at 0.97x the league average against IFK Norrkoping's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Norrkoping's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from GIF Sundsvall's last 35 games and IFK Norrkoping's last 5 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
46%
2.16
25%
3.98
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.72
1.17
IFK Norrkoping xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
6%
16.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.9 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Norrkoping Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.17 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Norrkoping?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
GIF Sundsvall's recent record stands at 11W 7D 12L from 30 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five.
IFK Norrkoping, meanwhile, have gone 9W 7D 14L across 30 games — 1.13 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: GIF Sundsvall on 1.33 PPG, IFK Norrkoping on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, GIF Sundsvall have managed 4W 5D 6L from their last 15 home games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Norrkoping's away record stands at 3W 5D 7L across their last 15 away games, a 0.93 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.20 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping in 67%.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
IFK Norrkoping
Pre-Season
GIF Sundsvall (Home) vs IFK Norrkoping (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
IFK Norrkoping
Pre-Season
❓ GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Norrkoping Form FAQs
What form are GIF Sundsvall and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 11W 7D 12L in their last 30 games (1.33 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 9W 7D 14L in their last 30 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.13 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. They cover more than one competition — Allsvenskan, Superettan. The most recent was as recently as 13 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
IFK Norrkoping have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 May 2022, when IFK Norrkoping won IFK Norrkoping 5-1 GIF Sundsvall.
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting IFK Norrkoping specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
GIF Sundsvall
0
Draws
4
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Norrkoping H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and IFK Norrkoping?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, GIF Sundsvall have won 0, IFK Norrkoping have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 October 2026: IFK Norrkoping 4-0 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and IFK Norrkoping?
IFK Norrkoping have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — GIF Sundsvall at 60%, IFK Norrkoping at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (GIF Sundsvall) and 67% (IFK Norrkoping).
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Norrkoping Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in GIF Sundsvall and IFK Norrkoping matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 80% of IFK Norrkoping's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are GIF Sundsvall and IFK Norrkoping matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 67% of IFK Norrkoping's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and IFK Norrkoping matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of GIF Sundsvall's recent matches and 73% of IFK Norrkoping's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Norrkoping cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Norrkoping beat GIF Sundsvall 1-3 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.55 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.17 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. IFK Norrkoping outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.97 / defence 1.24 against IFK Norrkoping attack 0.71 / defence 0.99, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 46% | Draw 25% | IFK Norrkoping 29%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual IFK Norrkoping win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 47%, IFK Norrkoping 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.33 PPG, IFK Norrkoping 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Norrkoping win broke the near-deadlock. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.