GIF Sundsvall 2-0 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Gais fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GIF Sundsvall host Gais at NP3 Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 15 June 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 0.97 xG and Gais 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.269 / defence 1.354 | Gais attack 0.796 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 0.875 / away 1.013. GIF Sundsvall carry an above-average attack strength of 1.269 — their λ of 0.97 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 9 GIF Sundsvall games / 9 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 32% | Draw 30% | Gais 38%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Gais 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gais are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gais offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Gais | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Jun 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 32% | Draw 30% | Gais 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG GIF Sundsvall 0.97 / Gais 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.269 / def 1.354 | Gais attack 0.796 / def 0.878 | league avg home 0.875 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Gais (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Gais xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Gais kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Gais kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 15 June 2021 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Gais?
GIF Sundsvall 2 - 0 Gais.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Gais part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Gais is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 32% chance of winning, Gais a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Gais?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Gais in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates GIF Sundsvall's attack at 1.27x the league average against Gais's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gais's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
32%
3.14
30%
3.31
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.07
1.09
Gais xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
11%
9.35
14%
6.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 13.8 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.09 for Gais, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Pre-Season
Gais
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between GIF Sundsvall and Gais runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Jun 2023, when Gais won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting Gais specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
GIF Sundsvall
1
Draws
2
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Gais?
From 4 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, Gais have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 6 August 2023, when Gais 3-3 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Gais?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
GIF Sundsvall cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Gais.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Gais 2-0 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 0.97 xG and Gais 1.09 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gais landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 1.27 / defence 1.35 against Gais attack 0.80 / defence 0.88, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 32% | Draw 30% | Gais 38%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual GIF Sundsvall win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.