Gefle IF 1-0 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gefle IF at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gefle IF vs Helsingborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gefle IF and Helsingborg meet at Gavlevallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Monday 10 April 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Helsingborg have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Helsingborg haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Helsingborg have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gefle IF 1.34 xG and Helsingborg 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gefle IF attack 0.870 / defence 1.150 | Helsingborg attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.135. Data: 1 Gefle IF games / 1 Helsingborg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Gefle IF 41% | Draw 29% | Helsingborg 30%. Fair-value odds: Gefle IF 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Helsingborg 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gefle IF are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gefle IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gefle IF vs Helsingborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Gavlevallen • Kick-off: Monday 10 Apr 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gefle IF 41% | Draw 29% | Helsingborg 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Gefle IF 1.34 / Helsingborg 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Gefle IF attack 0.870 / def 1.150 | Helsingborg attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Gefle IF (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Gefle IF xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Helsingborg xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gefle IF vs Helsingborg kick off?
Gefle IF vs Helsingborg kicked off at 12:00 on Monday 10 April 2023 at Gavlevallen.
What was the final score in Gefle IF vs Helsingborg?
Gefle IF 1 - 0 Helsingborg.
Where is Gefle IF vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Gavlevallen.
What competition is Gefle IF vs Helsingborg part of?
Gefle IF vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gefle IF vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives Gefle IF a 41% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gefle IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gefle IF vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Gefle IF and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will Gefle IF vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Helsingborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gefle IF and Helsingborg in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Helsingborg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Gefle IF's attack rating (0.87) and Helsingborg's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Helsingborg's attack (0.85x) against Gefle IF's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gefle IF Win
41%
2.43
29%
3.47
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Gefle IF xG
Total xG
2.45
1.11
Helsingborg xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
8%
12.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.8 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gefle IF vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Gefle IF and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Gefle IF and 1.11 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Gefle IF vs Helsingborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gefle IF
Pre-Season
Helsingborg
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Helsingborg have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Helsingborg won 4-0 on 29 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gefle IF have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Helsingborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Gefle IF
1
Draws
2
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Helsingborg?
From 4 meetings on record, Gefle IF have won 1, Helsingborg have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gefle IF and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2024, when Helsingborg 4-0 Gefle IF.
Who has won more matches between Gefle IF and Helsingborg?
Helsingborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gefle IF home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Gefle IF edge out Helsingborg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gefle IF beat Helsingborg 1-0 at Gavlevallen, Regular Season - 2, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gefle IF 1.34 xG and Helsingborg 1.11 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Helsingborg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gefle IF attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Helsingborg attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Gefle IF 41% | Draw 29% | Helsingborg 30%, with Gefle IF to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.