Gais 1-1 Dalkurd FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dalkurd FF at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gais vs Dalkurd FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gamla Ullevi plays host to Gais versus Dalkurd FF in Superettan, Relegation Round. Kick-off: Sunday 5 December 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Gais's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gais have posted 3W 2D 5L at Gamla Ullevi — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dalkurd FF (all games): 1W 0D 0L across 1 Superettan outings this term — 3.00 points per game. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Dalkurd FF have played only a handful of Superettan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dalkurd FF arrive in superior form — a 2.00 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Gais have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Dalkurd FF in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Gais 0W, Dalkurd FF 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with Dalkurd FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.15 xG and Dalkurd FF 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.913 / defence 1.359 | Dalkurd FF attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.099 / away 1.268. Data: 30 Gais games / 0 Dalkurd FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gais 29% | Draw 27% | Dalkurd FF 44%. Fair-value odds: Gais 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Dalkurd FF 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dalkurd FF as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dalkurd FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Dalkurd FF | Competition: Superettan, Relegation Round | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 29% | Draw 27% | Dalkurd FF 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Gais 1.15 / Dalkurd FF 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.913 / def 1.359 | Dalkurd FF attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.099 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Dalkurd FF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Dalkurd FF xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs Dalkurd FF kick off?
Gais vs Dalkurd FF kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs Dalkurd FF?
Gais 1 - 1 Dalkurd FF.
Where is Gais vs Dalkurd FF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Dalkurd FF part of?
Gais vs Dalkurd FF is a Relegation Round fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Dalkurd FF?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 29% chance of winning, Dalkurd FF a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dalkurd FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Dalkurd FF?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Gais and Dalkurd FF will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs Dalkurd FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Dalkurd FF?
Record (1 meetings): Gais 0W | Draws 0 | Dalkurd FF 1W.
What form are Gais and Dalkurd FF in?
Gais (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Dalkurd FF (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gais's attack rating (0.91) and Dalkurd FF's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dalkurd FF's attack (0.85x) against Gais's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalkurd FF Win
29%
3.44
27%
3.65
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Gais xG
Total xG
2.62
1.47
Dalkurd FF xG
3.44
29%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
7%
14.88
14%
7.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.7 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Dalkurd FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Gais and Dalkurd FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Gais and 1.47 for Dalkurd FF, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Dalkurd FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 1 outings, Gais have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Gais, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dalkurd FF's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for Dalkurd FF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Dalkurd FF are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gais.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gais are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Dalkurd FF are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gais have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Dalkurd FF in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Early Season
Dalkurd FF
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gais and Dalkurd FF in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Dalkurd FF have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Gais
1
Draws
1
Dalkurd FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Dalkurd FF?
From 2 meetings on record, Gais have won 0, Dalkurd FF have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gais and Dalkurd FF last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2021, when Gais 1-1 Dalkurd FF.
Who has won more matches between Gais and Dalkurd FF?
Dalkurd FF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Dalkurd FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gais play Dalkurd FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Gais's games and 100% of Dalkurd FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gais vs Dalkurd FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Gais's matches and 100% of Dalkurd FF's.
Do Gais and Dalkurd FF tend to score early?
Gais have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Dalkurd FF in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gais and Dalkurd FF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais and Dalkurd FF finished level at 1-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Relegation Round, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.15 xG and Dalkurd FF 1.47 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.91 / defence 1.36 against Dalkurd FF attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 29% | Draw 27% | Dalkurd FF 44%, with Dalkurd FF to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 100%, Dalkurd FF 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Dalkurd FF arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Gais conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Dalkurd FF managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.