Gais 2-3 AFC Eskilstuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gais vs AFC Eskilstuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gais host AFC Eskilstuna at Gamla Ullevi in Superettan, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 21 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gais — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gais at Gamla Ullevi this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Gamla Ullevi this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AFC Eskilstuna stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Eskilstuna away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gais at 1.30 PPG versus AFC Eskilstuna's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Gais, 0 for AFC Eskilstuna and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Gais trading profile (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
AFC Eskilstuna trading profile (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 38% versus AFC Eskilstuna 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gais 38% | AFC Eskilstuna 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.21 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.778 / defence 1.178 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.731 / defence 1.403. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 1.177. Gais's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. AFC Eskilstuna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.403 — this is suppressing Gais's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Gais games / 24 AFC Eskilstuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gais 41% | Draw 29% | AFC Eskilstuna 31%. Fair-value odds: Gais 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | AFC Eskilstuna 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gais as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gais offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Gais 50% | AFC Eskilstuna 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs AFC Eskilstuna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 41% | Draw 29% | AFC Eskilstuna 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Gais 1.21 / AFC Eskilstuna 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.778 / def 1.178 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.731 / def 1.403 | league avg home 1.107 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Gais (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.01
AFC Eskilstuna xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs AFC Eskilstuna kick off?
Gais vs AFC Eskilstuna kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 21 October 2021 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Gais 2 - 3 AFC Eskilstuna.
Where is Gais vs AFC Eskilstuna being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs AFC Eskilstuna part of?
Gais vs AFC Eskilstuna is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 41% chance of winning, AFC Eskilstuna a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Gais and AFC Eskilstuna will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs AFC Eskilstuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and AFC Eskilstuna?
Record (1 meetings): Gais 0W | Draws 1 | AFC Eskilstuna 0W.
What form are Gais and AFC Eskilstuna in?
Gais (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gais's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against AFC Eskilstuna's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Eskilstuna's attack versus Gais's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
41%
2.47
29%
3.47
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Gais xG
Total xG
2.22
1.01
AFC Eskilstuna xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
15%
6.80
9%
10.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 11.0 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.3 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Gais and AFC Eskilstuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Gais and 1.01 for AFC Eskilstuna, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gais come into this having played 24 games, going 8W 3D 13L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AFC Eskilstuna sit at 1.17 PPG from 24 outings (7W 7D 10L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gais on 1.12 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gais's home form reads 3W 2D 6L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, AFC Eskilstuna have taken 0.27 points per game from 11 outings (0W 3D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AFC Eskilstuna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gais come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gais are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; AFC Eskilstuna are on 1.29 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Blended
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gais and AFC Eskilstuna in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 8W 3D 13L in their last 24 games (1.12 PPG), while AFC Eskilstuna have gone 7W 7D 10L in their last 24 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or AFC Eskilstuna away?
Gais's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 1.00 PPG; AFC Eskilstuna away: 0.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Aug 2023, when Gais won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gais's record when hosting AFC Eskilstuna specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Gais
2
Draws
1
AFC Eskilstuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and AFC Eskilstuna?
From 4 meetings on record, Gais have won 1, AFC Eskilstuna have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gais and AFC Eskilstuna last play each other?
They last met on 18 August 2023, when Gais 3-0 AFC Eskilstuna.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gais 54%, AFC Eskilstuna 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Gais) and 36% (AFC Eskilstuna).
On the defensive side: Gais have failed to score in 36% of games; AFC Eskilstuna in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / AFC Eskilstuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gais play AFC Eskilstuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Gais's recent matches and 46% of AFC Eskilstuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gais vs AFC Eskilstuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Gais's recent games and 36% of AFC Eskilstuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gais and AFC Eskilstuna tend to score early?
Gais have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, AFC Eskilstuna in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AFC Eskilstuna defy the odds to beat Gais 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Eskilstuna beat Gais 2-3 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 19, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.21 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.01 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. AFC Eskilstuna outscored their 1.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.78 / defence 1.18 against AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.73 / defence 1.40, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 41% | Draw 29% | AFC Eskilstuna 31%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual AFC Eskilstuna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 38%, AFC Eskilstuna 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gais 1.12 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Eskilstuna win broke the near-deadlock. Gais (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.