Vasteras SK FK 0-2 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasteras SK FK vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 7 as Vasteras SK FK welcome Djurgardens IF to Hitachi Energy Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 May 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Vasteras SK FK haven't played a Allsvenskan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Vasteras SK FK's home record at Hitachi Energy Arena: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Djurgardens IF — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Djurgardens IF have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Vasteras SK FK at 2.00 PPG versus Djurgardens IF's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Vasteras SK FK in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Djurgardens IF in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 67% versus Djurgardens IF 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 60% | Djurgardens IF 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 0.97 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.658 / defence 1.014 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.116 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.381. Vasteras SK FK's attack strength of 0.658 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Vasteras SK FK games / 36 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 24% | Draw 25% | Djurgardens IF 51%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | Djurgardens IF 1.96. Djurgardens IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Djurgardens IF are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Vasteras SK FK 70% | Djurgardens IF 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Hitachi Energy Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 24% | Draw 25% | Djurgardens IF 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Vasteras SK FK 0.97 / Djurgardens IF 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.658 / def 1.014 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.116 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.381 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Djurgardens IF xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Djurgardens IF?
Vasteras SK FK 0 - 2 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 24% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Djurgardens IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Djurgardens IF in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Vasteras SK FK's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Djurgardens IF's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Djurgardens IF's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.8%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
24%
4.24
25%
3.94
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
2.54
1.56
Djurgardens IF xG
4.24
24%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
21%
4.77
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
5%
20.22
19%
5.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 12.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.56 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vasteras SK FK's recent record stands at 10W 10D 10L from 30 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. Vasteras SK FK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Djurgardens IF, meanwhile, have gone 15W 5D 10L across 30 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vasteras SK FK on 1.33 PPG, Djurgardens IF on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Vasteras SK FK have managed 6W 6D 3L from 15 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Djurgardens IF's away record stands at 5W 3D 7L across 15 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Djurgardens IF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasteras SK FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.37 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vasteras SK FK have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Pre-Season
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 10W 10D 10L in their last 30 games (1.33 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 15W 5D 10L in their last 30 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Vasteras SK FK's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 1.60 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Vasteras SK FK or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 10 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Aug 2026, when Djurgardens IF won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vasteras SK FK's record when hosting Djurgardens IF specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Vasteras SK FK
0
Draws
3
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Djurgardens IF?
From 4 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 1, Djurgardens IF have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2026, when Vasteras SK FK 1-0 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Djurgardens IF see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 73%, Djurgardens IF 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Vasteras SK FK and 47% for Djurgardens IF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 13% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF in 33%; Djurgardens IF in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play Djurgardens IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Vasteras SK FK's games and 53% of Djurgardens IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Vasteras SK FK's matches and 47% of Djurgardens IF's.
Do Vasteras SK FK and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Djurgardens IF cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Vasteras SK FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Vasteras SK FK 0-2 at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 0.97 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.56 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Vasteras SK FK fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.66 / defence 1.01 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.12 / defence 1.01, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 24% | Draw 25% | Djurgardens IF 51%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 60%, Djurgardens IF 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasteras SK FK 1.33 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.