Vasteras SK FK 2-0 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasteras SK FK vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vasteras SK FK host Degerfors IF at Hitachi Energy Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Hitachi Energy Arena, Vasteras SK FK have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Vasteras SK FK are significantly better at Hitachi Energy Arena than their overall form suggests.
Degerfors IF — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Vasteras SK FK at 1.20 PPG versus Degerfors IF's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Vasteras SK FK register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Degerfors IF in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Vasteras SK FK trading profile (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Degerfors IF trading profile (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 56% versus Degerfors IF 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 68% | Degerfors IF 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.51 xG and Degerfors IF 2.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 1.006 / defence 1.368 | Degerfors IF attack 0.997 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.697 / away 1.548. Data: 11 Vasteras SK FK games / 41 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 27% | Draw 22% | Degerfors IF 51%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 3.70 | Draw 4.55 | Degerfors IF 1.96. Degerfors IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 2.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Degerfors IF as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.62 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vasteras SK FK 60% | Degerfors IF 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Hitachi Energy Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 27% | Draw 22% | Degerfors IF 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.51 / Degerfors IF 2.11 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 1.006 / def 1.368 | Degerfors IF attack 0.997 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.697 / away 1.548 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
2.11
Degerfors IF xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 12 July 2026 at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Degerfors IF?
Vasteras SK FK 2 - 0 Degerfors IF.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Degerfors IF part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 27% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 51% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Degerfors IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Degerfors IF in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Degerfors IF (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Vasteras SK FK's attack rating (1.01) and Degerfors IF's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Degerfors IF's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 2.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
27%
3.72
22%
4.48
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
3.62
2.11
Degerfors IF xG
3.72
27%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.24
Clean Sheet
12%
8.25
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
3%
30.72
11%
8.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 2.11 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vasteras SK FK come into this having played 41 games, going 24W 8D 9L for 1.95 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Degerfors IF sit at 0.98 PPG from 41 outings (10W 10D 21L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasteras SK FK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.97 PPG clear of Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Vasteras SK FK's home form reads 11W 6D 2L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Degerfors IF have taken 1.42 points per game from 19 outings (8W 3D 8L). That's actually stronger than their 0.98 PPG overall record — Degerfors IF travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasteras SK FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.10 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 24W 8D 9L in their last 41 games (1.95 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 10W 10D 21L in their last 41 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or Degerfors IF away?
Vasteras SK FK's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 2.05 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Vasteras SK FK or Degerfors IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Degerfors IF in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Vasteras SK FK
0
Draws
0
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Degerfors IF?
From 1 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 1, Degerfors IF have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Vasteras SK FK 2-0 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and Degerfors IF?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 53%, Degerfors IF 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Vasteras SK FK and 74% for Degerfors IF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play Degerfors IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Vasteras SK FK's games and 68% of Degerfors IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Vasteras SK FK's matches and 74% of Degerfors IF's.
Do Vasteras SK FK and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vasteras SK FK cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat Degerfors IF 2-0 at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.51 xG and Degerfors IF 2.11 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Degerfors IF landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 1.01 / defence 1.37 against Degerfors IF attack 1.00 / defence 0.88, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 27% | Draw 22% | Degerfors IF 51%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Vasteras SK FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 68%, Degerfors IF 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Vasteras SK FK arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.