Sirius 0-1 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sirius at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sirius vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 25 as Sirius welcome Hammarby FF to Studenternas IP. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 27 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Sirius have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Studenternas IP this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Sirius) versus 1.70 (Hammarby FF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Sirius trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Hammarby FF trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sirius 63% and Hammarby FF 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 57% | Hammarby FF 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.50 xG and Hammarby FF 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 0.914 / defence 1.085 | Hammarby FF attack 1.010 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.110. Data: 54 Sirius games / 54 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 42% | Draw 28% | Hammarby FF 30%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Hammarby FF 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sirius at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sirius offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 50% | Hammarby FF 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 42% | Draw 28% | Hammarby FF 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Sirius 1.50 / Hammarby FF 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 0.914 / def 1.085 | Hammarby FF attack 1.010 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Sirius (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Hammarby FF xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Sirius vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 27 October 2021 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Hammarby FF?
Sirius 0 - 1 Hammarby FF.
Where is Sirius vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Hammarby FF part of?
Sirius vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 42% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sirius and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Hammarby FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sirius and Hammarby FF in?
Sirius (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Hammarby FF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sirius's attack at 0.91x the league average against Hammarby FF's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
42%
2.35
28%
3.59
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.71
1.22
Hammarby FF xG
2.35
42%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
13%
7.94
7%
15.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.1 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Sirius and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Sirius and 1.22 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Sirius have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 17W 17D 20L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF's form line: 21W 18D 15L from 54 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sirius on 1.26 PPG, Hammarby FF on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sirius have posted 1.54 PPG from 26 outings (11W 7D 8L).
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 8W 6D 12L from 26 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Sirius are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.63 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Hammarby FF in 67%.
Last 54 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 17W 17D 20L in their last 54 games (1.26 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 21W 18D 15L in their last 54 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Hammarby FF away?
Sirius's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.54 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sirius and Hammarby FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sirius have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2022, when Hammarby FF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sirius's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 2W 0D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sirius
2
Draws
6
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 2, Hammarby FF have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Sirius 2-0 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sirius at 65%, Hammarby FF at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Sirius and 77% for Hammarby FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Hammarby FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Sirius's games and 73% of Hammarby FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sirius vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Sirius's matches and 77% of Hammarby FF's.
Do Sirius and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hammarby FF defy the odds to beat Sirius 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Sirius 0-1 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 25, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.50 xG and Hammarby FF 1.22 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sirius fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.91 / defence 1.08 against Hammarby FF attack 1.01 / defence 1.08, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 42% | Draw 28% | Hammarby FF 30%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Hammarby FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 57%, Hammarby FF 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.26 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.