Sirius 3-1 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hammarby FF (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sirius face Hammarby FF.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 21 as Sirius welcome Hammarby FF to Studenternas IP. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 August 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Sirius have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Studenternas IP this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Hammarby FF's 2.10 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Sirius's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
Hammarby FF have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 8 encounters against Sirius's 0 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2025, ended 2–3 with Hammarby FF winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Hammarby FF have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Sirius trading profile (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Hammarby FF trading profile (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 64% versus Hammarby FF 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 60% | Hammarby FF 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.03 xG and Hammarby FF 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 0.874 / defence 1.007 | Hammarby FF attack 1.201 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.365. Hammarby FF have an above-average attack strength of 1.201 — the away xG of 1.65 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Sirius games / 50 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 23% | Draw 26% | Hammarby FF 51%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | Hammarby FF 1.96. Hammarby FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sirius 60% | Hammarby FF 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Aug 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 23% | Draw 26% | Hammarby FF 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Sirius 1.03 / Hammarby FF 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 0.874 / def 1.007 | Hammarby FF attack 1.201 / def 0.860 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Hammarby FF xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Sirius vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 24 August 2025 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Hammarby FF?
Sirius 3 - 1 Hammarby FF.
Where is Sirius vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Hammarby FF part of?
Sirius vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 23% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sirius and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Hammarby FF?
Record (8 meetings): Sirius 0W | Draws 2 | Hammarby FF 6W.
What form are Sirius and Hammarby FF in?
Sirius (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Hammarby FF (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sirius's attack at 0.87x the league average against Hammarby FF's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
23%
4.32
26%
3.91
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.68
1.65
Hammarby FF xG
4.32
23%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
19%
5.21
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
4%
22.51
18%
5.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 11.3 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Sirius and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Sirius and 1.65 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Sirius have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 17W 10D 23L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF's form line: 29W 9D 12L from 50 games, 1.92 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Hammarby FF are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sirius.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sirius have posted 1.21 PPG from 24 outings (8W 5D 11L).
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 12W 4D 8L from 24 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sirius are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.70 scored and 0.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Hammarby FF in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 17W 10D 23L in their last 50 games (1.22 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 29W 9D 12L in their last 50 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Hammarby FF away?
Hammarby FF's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.21 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Sirius or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sirius and Hammarby FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sirius have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2022, when Hammarby FF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sirius's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 2W 0D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sirius
2
Draws
6
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 2, Hammarby FF have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Sirius 2-0 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Hammarby FF see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 54%, Hammarby FF 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Sirius) and 50% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF in 50%; Sirius have failed to score in 38% of games; Hammarby FF in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Sirius's recent matches and 33% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sirius vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Sirius's recent games and 50% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sirius and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sirius cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hammarby FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat Hammarby FF 3-1 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 21, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.03 xG and Hammarby FF 1.65 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sirius beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.87 / defence 1.01 against Hammarby FF attack 1.20 / defence 0.86, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 23% | Draw 26% | Hammarby FF 51%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Sirius win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 60%, Hammarby FF 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Sirius winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.