Sirius 0-1 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BK Hacken at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sirius vs BK Hacken encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees BK Hacken travel to Studenternas IP to take on Sirius. The game is scheduled for Monday 22 August 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sirius — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sirius have posted 6W 1D 3L at Studenternas IP — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Sirius are significantly better at Studenternas IP than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, BK Hacken have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. BK Hacken are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sirius, 1 for BK Hacken and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 May 2022, ended 3–4 with BK Hacken winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sirius in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
BK Hacken in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 87% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sirius 52% and BK Hacken 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 56% | BK Hacken 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.52 xG and BK Hacken 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 0.962 / defence 0.986 | BK Hacken attack 1.553 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.158. BK Hacken have an above-average attack strength of 1.553 — the away xG of 1.77 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Sirius games / 48 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 32% | Draw 25% | BK Hacken 43%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | BK Hacken 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, BK Hacken are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BK Hacken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.29 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 40% | BK Hacken 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Monday 22 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 32% | Draw 25% | BK Hacken 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Sirius 1.52 / BK Hacken 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 0.962 / def 0.986 | BK Hacken attack 1.553 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.77
BK Hacken xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs BK Hacken kick off?
Sirius vs BK Hacken kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 22 August 2022 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs BK Hacken?
Sirius 0 - 1 BK Hacken.
Where is Sirius vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs BK Hacken part of?
Sirius vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 32% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Sirius and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and BK Hacken?
Record (2 meetings): Sirius 1W | Draws 0 | BK Hacken 1W.
What form are Sirius and BK Hacken in?
Sirius (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. BK Hacken (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sirius's attack rating (0.96) and BK Hacken's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
32%
3.12
25%
3.97
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Sirius xG
Total xG
3.29
1.77
BK Hacken xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
17%
5.88
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
5%
18.33
9%
10.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.0 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Sirius and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Sirius and 1.77 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sirius come into this having played 48 games, going 17W 11D 20L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, BK Hacken sit at 1.54 PPG from 48 outings (20W 14D 14L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sirius on 1.29 PPG, BK Hacken on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sirius's home form reads 12W 2D 9L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, BK Hacken have taken 1.48 points per game from 23 outings (8W 10D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Sirius are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 1.85 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken in 75%.
Last 48 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
BK Hacken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 17W 11D 20L in their last 48 games (1.29 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 20W 14D 14L in their last 48 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or BK Hacken away?
Sirius's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.65 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sirius and BK Hacken runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Nov 2021, when Sirius won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sirius's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sirius
2
Draws
6
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 2, BK Hacken have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when BK Hacken 2-2 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and BK Hacken?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sirius at 44%, BK Hacken at 87%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Sirius) and 65% (BK Hacken). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 13% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sirius keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play BK Hacken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Sirius's games and 87% of BK Hacken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sirius vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Sirius's matches and 65% of BK Hacken's.
Do Sirius and BK Hacken tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as BK Hacken edge out Sirius 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat Sirius 0-1 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 19, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.52 xG and BK Hacken 1.77 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sirius fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.96 / defence 0.99 against BK Hacken attack 1.55 / defence 1.08, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 32% | Draw 25% | BK Hacken 43%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 56%, BK Hacken 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
BK Hacken's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.29 PPG, BK Hacken 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BK Hacken win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward. BK Hacken (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.