Orgryte IS vs Kalmar FF – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs Kalmar FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Orgryte IS and Kalmar FF meet at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Orgryte IS (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS at Gamla Ullevi this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Kalmar FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalmar FF's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Orgryte IS, 2 for Kalmar FF and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Jul 2026, ended 0–3 with Kalmar FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Orgryte IS half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Kalmar FF half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 49% versus Kalmar FF 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 53% | Kalmar FF 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.77 xG and Kalmar FF 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.035 / defence 1.340 | Kalmar FF attack 0.632 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.310. Data: 19 Orgryte IS games / 19 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 52% | Draw 25% | Kalmar FF 23%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Kalmar FF 4.35. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 80% | Kalmar FF 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 52% | Draw 25% | Kalmar FF 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Orgryte IS 1.77 / Kalmar FF 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.035 / def 1.340 | Kalmar FF attack 0.632 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Kalmar FF xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Kalmar FF is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 November 2026 at Gamla Ullevi.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Kalmar FF part of?
Orgryte IS vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 52% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Orgryte IS and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Kalmar FF?
Record (3 meetings): Orgryte IS 1W | Draws 0 | Kalmar FF 2W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Kalmar FF in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Kalmar FF (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 1.03x the league average against Kalmar FF's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kalmar FF's attack (0.63x) against Orgryte IS's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
52%
1.93
25%
3.95
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.88
1.11
Kalmar FF xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
17%
5.84
4%
25.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.11 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Orgryte IS's recent record stands at 19W 13D 17L from 49 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kalmar FF, meanwhile, have gone 23W 14D 12L across 49 games — 1.69 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Orgryte IS against 1.69 for Kalmar FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Orgryte IS have managed 10W 8D 6L from 24 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kalmar FF's away record stands at 6W 10D 8L across 24 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.69 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kalmar FF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orgryte IS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.49 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Kalmar FF in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 19W 13D 17L in their last 49 games (1.43 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 23W 14D 12L in their last 49 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Kalmar FF away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.58 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Orgryte IS or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orgryte IS have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Kalmar FF have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kalmar FF won 3-0 on 5 Jul 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Orgryte IS
0
Draws
2
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Kalmar FF?
From 3 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 1, Kalmar FF have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when Kalmar FF 3-0 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Kalmar FF?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 50%, Kalmar FF 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Orgryte IS) and 38% (Kalmar FF).
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Kalmar FF in 38%; Kalmar FF in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Kalmar FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Orgryte IS's recent matches and 42% of Kalmar FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orgryte IS vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 38% of Kalmar FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.