Orebro SK 2-0 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 20 as Orebro SK welcome Ostersunds FK to Behrn Arena. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 22 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orebro SK stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Orebro SK have posted 2W 4D 4L at Behrn Arena — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Ostersunds FK have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Ostersunds FK have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Orebro SK 0.60 PPG, Ostersunds FK 0.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 47% versus Ostersunds FK 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 57% | Ostersunds FK 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.46 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.754 / defence 1.299 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.602 / defence 1.347. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.052. Orebro SK's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 1.46 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ostersunds FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.347 — this is suppressing Orebro SK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Orebro SK games / 49 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 50% | Draw 30% | Ostersunds FK 19%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | Ostersunds FK 5.26. Orebro SK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Orebro SK as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orebro SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Orebro SK 50% | Ostersunds FK 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 50% | Draw 30% | Ostersunds FK 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Orebro SK 1.46 / Ostersunds FK 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.754 / def 1.299 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.602 / def 1.347 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Ostersunds FK xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK?
Orebro SK 2 - 0 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 50% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Orebro SK and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Ostersunds FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Orebro SK and Ostersunds FK in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Orebro SK's attack at 0.75x the league average against Ostersunds FK's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
50%
1.99
30%
3.30
19%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.28
0.82
Ostersunds FK xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
5.13
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
5%
21.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.3 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Orebro SK and 0.82 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Orebro SK come into this having played 49 games, going 15W 10D 24L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ostersunds FK sit at 0.92 PPG from 49 outings (11W 12D 26L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orebro SK on 1.12 PPG, Ostersunds FK on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Orebro SK's home form reads 9W 7D 8L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Ostersunds FK have taken 1.04 points per game from 24 outings (6W 7D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Orebro SK are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 0.94 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
Ostersunds FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 15W 10D 24L in their last 49 games (1.12 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 11W 12D 26L in their last 49 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.42 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Aug 2024, when Orebro SK won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orebro SK's record when hosting Ostersunds FK specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Orebro SK
2
Draws
4
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Ostersunds FK?
From 10 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 4, Ostersunds FK have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Ostersunds FK 3-2 Orebro SK.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 54%, Ostersunds FK 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Orebro SK) and 46% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK have failed to score in 38% of games; Ostersunds FK in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 33% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Orebro SK's recent games and 46% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orebro SK cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ostersunds FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK beat Ostersunds FK 2-0 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.46 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.82 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ostersunds FK landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.75 / defence 1.30 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.60 / defence 1.35, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 50% | Draw 30% | Ostersunds FK 19%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 57%, Ostersunds FK 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.12 PPG, Ostersunds FK 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orebro SK win broke the near-deadlock. Orebro SK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.