Mjallby AIF 1-1 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kalmar FF make the trip to Strandvallen to face Mjallby AIF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 May 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mjallby AIF have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Mjallby AIF's home record at Strandvallen: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Strandvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Strandvallen this season.
Kalmar FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Kalmar FF have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Mjallby AIF, 1.60 for Kalmar FF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mjallby AIF lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 4–0 with Mjallby AIF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Mjallby AIF — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Kalmar FF — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 47% versus Kalmar FF 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 47% | Kalmar FF 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.52 xG and Kalmar FF 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.038 / defence 0.833 | Kalmar FF attack 1.121 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.066. Data: 39 Mjallby AIF games / 39 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 49% | Draw 26% | Kalmar FF 25%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Kalmar FF 4.00. Mjallby AIF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 20% | Kalmar FF 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 28 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 49% | Draw 26% | Kalmar FF 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.52 / Kalmar FF 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.038 / def 0.833 | Kalmar FF attack 1.121 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Kalmar FF xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 May 2022 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF?
Mjallby AIF 1 - 1 Kalmar FF.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 49% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF?
Record (3 meetings): Mjallby AIF 2W | Draws 0 | Kalmar FF 1W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Kalmar FF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mjallby AIF's attack at 1.04x the league average against Kalmar FF's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kalmar FF's attack (1.12x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
49%
2.02
26%
3.88
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.52
0.99
Kalmar FF xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
18%
5.47
5%
18.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.2 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 0.99 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 22W 19D 19L from 60 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five.
Kalmar FF, meanwhile, have gone 20W 18D 22L across 60 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.30 for Kalmar FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 13W 9D 8L from 30 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kalmar FF's away record stands at 13W 7D 10L across 30 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.17 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
Kalmar FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 22W 19D 19L in their last 60 games (1.42 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 20W 18D 22L in their last 60 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Kalmar FF away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.60 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 4-0 on 17 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kalmar FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Mjallby AIF
2
Draws
2
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 6, Kalmar FF have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Kalmar FF 2-1 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 43%, Kalmar FF 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Mjallby AIF) and 53% (Kalmar FF).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Mjallby AIF have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Kalmar FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 57% of Kalmar FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 53% of Kalmar FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF finished level at 1-1 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 10, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.52 xG and Kalmar FF 0.99 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.04 / defence 0.83 against Kalmar FF attack 1.12 / defence 1.00, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 49% | Draw 26% | Kalmar FF 25%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 47%, Kalmar FF 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.42 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.