Mjallby AIF 2-1 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs Helsingborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 6 as Mjallby AIF welcome Helsingborg to Strandvallen. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 May 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjallby AIF stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mjallby AIF have posted 3W 3D 4L at Strandvallen — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Strandvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Strandvallen this season.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Helsingborg have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Helsingborg have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Helsingborg have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Mjallby AIF are in the better shape of the two on current Allsvenskan data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Mjallby AIF, 0 for Helsingborg and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2020, ended 3–2 with Mjallby AIF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Mjallby AIF trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Helsingborg trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 34% versus Helsingborg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 38% | Helsingborg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.65 xG and Helsingborg 0.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.122 / defence 0.803 | Helsingborg attack 0.751 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 0.945. Data: 35 Mjallby AIF games / 5 Helsingborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 64% | Draw 24% | Helsingborg 12%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 1.56 | Draw 4.17 | Helsingborg 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Mjallby AIF (64%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Helsingborg's lower xG of 0.57 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Mjallby AIF 20% | Helsingborg 90%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Helsingborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 64% | Draw 24% | Helsingborg 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 35% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.65 / Helsingborg 0.57 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.122 / def 0.803 | Helsingborg attack 0.751 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.336 / away 0.945 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
0.57
Helsingborg xG
35%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Helsingborg kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Helsingborg kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 May 2022 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Helsingborg?
Mjallby AIF 2 - 1 Helsingborg.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Helsingborg part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 64% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 12% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Helsingborg?
Record (2 meetings): Mjallby AIF 2W | Draws 0 | Helsingborg 0W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Helsingborg in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Helsingborg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Helsingborg's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Helsingborg's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 0.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.8%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
64%
1.57
24%
4.22
12%
8.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.8%
Home win
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.22
0.57
Helsingborg xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
8.03
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.85
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
57%
1.77
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
36%
2.77
2%
41.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 10.2 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.8 | 8.4 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 0.57 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Helsingborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mjallby AIF come into this having played 32 games, going 11W 11D 10L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, Helsingborg sit at 0.91 PPG from 32 outings (6W 11D 15L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Helsingborg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Mjallby AIF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Helsingborg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Mjallby AIF's home form reads 6W 5D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Helsingborg have taken 0.88 points per game from 16 outings (3W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Helsingborg are on 1.12 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
Helsingborg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Helsingborg in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 11W 11D 10L in their last 32 games (1.38 PPG), while Helsingborg have gone 6W 11D 15L in their last 32 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Helsingborg away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.44 PPG; Helsingborg away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Helsingborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Helsingborg in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2022, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Mjallby AIF have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting Helsingborg specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Mjallby AIF
0
Draws
0
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Helsingborg?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 4, Helsingborg have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2022, when Helsingborg 0-1 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Helsingborg?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 25%, Helsingborg 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Mjallby AIF) and 75% (Helsingborg).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Mjallby AIF have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Helsingborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 75% of Helsingborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Helsingborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 75% of Helsingborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Helsingborg tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Helsingborg in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mjallby AIF edge out Helsingborg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Helsingborg 2-1 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 6, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.65 xG and Helsingborg 0.57 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.12 / defence 0.80 against Helsingborg attack 0.75 / defence 1.10, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 64% | Draw 24% | Helsingborg 12%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 38%, Helsingborg 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Helsingborg's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.