Mjallby AIF 0-3 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 35%, yet in-form Gais provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mjallby AIF vs Gais fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gais make the trip to Strandvallen to face Mjallby AIF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Mjallby AIF (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's home record at Strandvallen: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Gais have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gais's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Gais are 0.60 PPG clear of Mjallby AIF in recent Allsvenskan fixtures (1.20 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Mjallby AIF, 1 for Gais and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Mjallby AIF half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Gais half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 53% versus Gais 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 45% | Gais 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.18 xG and Gais 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.827 / defence 1.224 | Gais attack 0.779 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.234. Data: 51 Mjallby AIF games / 51 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 35% | Draw 30% | Gais 35%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Gais 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 30% | Gais 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Gais | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 35% | Draw 30% | Gais 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.18 / Gais 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.827 / def 1.224 | Gais attack 0.779 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Gais xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Gais kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Gais kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Gais?
Mjallby AIF 0 - 3 Gais.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Gais part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Gais is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 35% chance of winning, Gais a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Gais?
Record (5 meetings): Mjallby AIF 1W | Draws 3 | Gais 1W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Gais in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Gais (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Gais's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — Gais's attack (0.78x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
35%
2.86
30%
3.31
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.35
1.18
Gais xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
11%
9.29
11%
9.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.2 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.18 for Gais, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 28W 13D 10L from 51 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gais, meanwhile, have gone 21W 16D 14L across 51 games — 1.55 PPG, with L-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.90 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.55 for Gais. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 14W 5D 6L from 25 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gais's away record stands at 8W 8D 9L across 25 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 1.37 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Gais
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Gais in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 28W 13D 10L in their last 51 games (1.90 PPG), while Gais have gone 21W 16D 14L in their last 51 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Gais away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.88 PPG; Gais away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Gais been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Gais in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gais won 0-3 on 20 Sep 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Gais — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Mjallby AIF
3
Draws
2
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Gais?
From 6 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 1, Gais have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Mjallby AIF 0-3 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Gais?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 44%, Gais 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Mjallby AIF) and 48% (Gais).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Gais?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 56% of Gais's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 48% of Gais's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Gais tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Gais in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gais run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Mjallby AIF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat Mjallby AIF 0-3 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 22, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.18 xG and Gais 1.18 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Mjallby AIF fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Gais outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.83 / defence 1.22 against Gais attack 0.78 / defence 0.95, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 35% | Draw 30% | Gais 35%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Gais win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 45%, Gais 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Gais's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.90 PPG, Gais 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gais win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gais (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.