Mjallby AIF 2-1 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF meet at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 29 November 2020 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mjallby AIF have posted 5W 4D 1L at Strandvallen — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Djurgardens IF have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Djurgardens IF's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Mjallby AIF, 1.50 for Djurgardens IF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Mjallby AIF half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Djurgardens IF half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 61% versus Djurgardens IF 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 57% | Djurgardens IF 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.44 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.202 / defence 1.066 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.953 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.397. Data: 28 Mjallby AIF games / 28 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 37% | Draw 27% | Djurgardens IF 36%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Djurgardens IF 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 70% | Djurgardens IF 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2020, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 37% | Draw 27% | Djurgardens IF 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.44 / Djurgardens IF 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.202 / def 1.066 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.953 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Djurgardens IF xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 29 November 2020 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Mjallby AIF 2 - 1 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 37% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Djurgardens IF's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (0.95x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
37%
2.72
27%
3.65
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.86
1.42
Djurgardens IF xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
9%
11.23
8%
11.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.7 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.42 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mjallby AIF come into this having played 28 games, going 11W 8D 9L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Djurgardens IF sit at 1.61 PPG from 28 outings (13W 6D 9L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.61 for Djurgardens IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Mjallby AIF's home form reads 7W 4D 3L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Djurgardens IF have taken 1.64 points per game from 14 outings (7W 2D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.64 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mjallby AIF have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 11W 8D 9L in their last 28 games (1.46 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 13W 6D 9L in their last 28 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.79 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 17 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mjallby AIF
3
Draws
4
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 3, Djurgardens IF have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2025, when Mjallby AIF 1-1 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 64%, Djurgardens IF 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Mjallby AIF) and 50% (Djurgardens IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 43% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Mjallby AIF's matches and 50% of Djurgardens IF's.
Do Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mjallby AIF edge out Djurgardens IF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Djurgardens IF 2-1 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 29, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.44 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.42 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.20 / defence 1.07 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.95 / defence 1.06, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 37% | Draw 27% | Djurgardens IF 36%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 57%, Djurgardens IF 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.46 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.