Mjallby AIF 2-1 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF meet at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 July 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Mjallby AIF (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF at Strandvallen this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Mjallby AIF are significantly better at Strandvallen than their overall form suggests.
Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Mjallby AIF, 0 for Degerfors IF and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 2–0 with Mjallby AIF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Mjallby AIF half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Degerfors IF half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 34% versus Degerfors IF 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 30% | Degerfors IF 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.72 xG and Degerfors IF 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.934 / defence 0.950 | Degerfors IF attack 0.789 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.060. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.247 — this is suppressing Mjallby AIF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Mjallby AIF games / 44 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 58% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 16%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 1.72 | Draw 3.85 | Degerfors IF 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Mjallby AIF (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Mjallby AIF 60% | Degerfors IF 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jul 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 58% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 46% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.72 / Degerfors IF 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.934 / def 0.950 | Degerfors IF attack 0.789 / def 1.247 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Degerfors IF xG
46%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 23 July 2022 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF?
Mjallby AIF 2 - 1 Degerfors IF.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 58% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF?
Record (2 meetings): Mjallby AIF 2W | Draws 0 | Degerfors IF 0W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. Degerfors IF (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mjallby AIF's attack at 0.93x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (0.79x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
58%
1.71
26%
3.92
16%
6.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.52
0.79
Degerfors IF xG
1.71
58%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
6.25
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
26%
3.78
3%
34.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 11.0 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 0.79 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 14W 16D 14L from 44 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Degerfors IF, meanwhile, have gone 12W 6D 26L across 44 games — 0.95 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 0.95 for Degerfors IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 8W 8D 6L from 22 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Degerfors IF's away record stands at 4W 3D 15L across 22 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.00 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 14W 16D 14L in their last 44 games (1.32 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 12W 6D 26L in their last 44 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Degerfors IF away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.45 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Degerfors IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Degerfors IF in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Mjallby AIF have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 4-1 on 27 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
8
Mjallby AIF
1
Draws
0
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF?
From 9 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 8, Degerfors IF have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Degerfors IF 1-4 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 36%, Degerfors IF 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Mjallby AIF) and 46% (Degerfors IF).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Mjallby AIF have failed to score in 32% of games; Degerfors IF in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Degerfors IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 41% of Degerfors IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 46% of Degerfors IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mjallby AIF edge out Degerfors IF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Degerfors IF 2-1 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 15, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.72 xG and Degerfors IF 0.79 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.93 / defence 0.95 against Degerfors IF attack 0.79 / defence 1.25, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 58% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 16%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 30%, Degerfors IF 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.32 PPG, Degerfors IF 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.