Malmo FF 3-1 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Malmo FF at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Malmo FF vs Sirius fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Sirius travel to Eleda Stadion to take on Malmo FF. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 July 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Malmo FF stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Malmo FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Malmo FF's home record at Eleda Stadion: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Eleda Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Malmo FF are significantly better at Eleda Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Sirius have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Malmo FF 1.60 PPG, Sirius 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Malmo FF in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Sirius in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Malmo FF 48% versus Sirius 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Malmo FF 50% | Sirius 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Malmo FF 1.87 xG and Sirius 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Malmo FF attack 1.171 / defence 0.800 | Sirius attack 1.122 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.059. Data: 45 Malmo FF games / 44 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Malmo FF 58% | Draw 24% | Sirius 18%. Fair-value odds: Malmo FF 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Sirius 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Malmo FF (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Malmo FF at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Malmo FF 40% | Sirius 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Malmo FF vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Eleda Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jul 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Malmo FF 58% | Draw 24% | Sirius 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG Malmo FF 1.87 / Sirius 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Malmo FF attack 1.171 / def 0.800 | Sirius attack 1.122 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Malmo FF xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Sirius xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Malmo FF vs Sirius kick off?
Malmo FF vs Sirius kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 23 July 2022 at Eleda Stadion.
What was the final score in Malmo FF vs Sirius?
Malmo FF 3 - 1 Sirius.
Where is Malmo FF vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Eleda Stadion.
What competition is Malmo FF vs Sirius part of?
Malmo FF vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Malmo FF vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Malmo FF a 58% chance of winning, Sirius a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Malmo FF vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Malmo FF and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Malmo FF vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and Sirius?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Malmo FF and Sirius in?
Malmo FF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Sirius (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Malmo FF's attack at 1.17x the league average against Sirius's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sirius's attack versus Malmo FF's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
58%
1.73
24%
4.12
18%
5.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Malmo FF xG
Total xG
2.82
0.95
Sirius xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
5.64
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
15%
6.49
Win to Nil
22%
4.46
3%
36.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.6 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Malmo FF vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Malmo FF and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Malmo FF and 0.95 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Malmo FF vs Sirius?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Malmo FF come into this having played 44 games, going 24W 11D 9L for 1.89 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Malmo FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sirius sit at 1.32 PPG from 44 outings (16W 10D 18L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Malmo FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Sirius — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Malmo FF's home form reads 12W 6D 3L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Sirius have taken 0.90 points per game from 21 outings (4W 7D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sirius's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Malmo FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Malmo FF are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.27 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Defensively: Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Malmo FF
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Malmo FF and Sirius in coming into this match?
Malmo FF have gone 24W 11D 9L in their last 44 games (1.89 PPG), while Sirius have gone 16W 10D 18L in their last 44 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Malmo FF at home or Sirius away?
Malmo FF's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Malmo FF at home: 2.00 PPG; Sirius away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Malmo FF or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Sirius in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2025, when Sirius won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Malmo FF's record when hosting Sirius specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Malmo FF
1
Draws
4
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, Malmo FF have won 5, Sirius have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Malmo FF and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Sirius 0-1 Malmo FF.
Who has won more matches between Malmo FF and Sirius?
Malmo FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Malmo FF 57%, Sirius 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Malmo FF and 67% for Sirius. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Malmo FF keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Sirius in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Malmo FF home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Malmo FF play Sirius?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Malmo FF's games and 57% of Sirius's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Malmo FF vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Malmo FF's matches and 67% of Sirius's.
Do Malmo FF and Sirius tend to score early?
Malmo FF have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Sirius in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Malmo FF cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sirius.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF beat Sirius 3-1 at Eleda Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Malmo FF 1.87 xG and Sirius 0.95 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Malmo FF beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Malmo FF attack 1.17 / defence 0.80 against Sirius attack 1.12 / defence 1.09, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Malmo FF 58% | Draw 24% | Sirius 18%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Malmo FF 50%, Sirius 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Malmo FF's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Sirius's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.32. Form held, and they took the win. Malmo FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm. Sirius (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.