Malmo FF 2-0 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Malmo FF at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Mjallby AIF travel to Eleda Stadion to take on Malmo FF. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 May 2022, 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Malmo FF — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Malmo FF have posted 4W 4D 2L at Eleda Stadion — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Eleda Stadion this season.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Mjallby AIF have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Malmo FF at 2.10 PPG versus Mjallby AIF's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Malmo FF, 1 for Mjallby AIF and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Mjallby AIF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Malmo FF in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Mjallby AIF in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Malmo FF 60% versus Mjallby AIF 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Malmo FF 62% | Mjallby AIF 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Malmo FF 1.17 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Malmo FF attack 1.166 / defence 0.740 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.919 / defence 0.772. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.029. Mjallby AIF's defence strength of 0.772 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Malmo FF's defence rating of 0.740 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 Malmo FF games / 36 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Malmo FF 47% | Draw 31% | Mjallby AIF 22%. Fair-value odds: Malmo FF 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Mjallby AIF 4.55. Malmo FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Mjallby AIF's lower xG of 0.70 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Malmo FF are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Malmo FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.87 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Malmo FF 50% | Mjallby AIF 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Eleda Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Malmo FF 47% | Draw 31% | Mjallby AIF 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 35% | xG Malmo FF 1.17 / Mjallby AIF 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Malmo FF attack 1.166 / def 0.740 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.919 / def 0.772 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Malmo FF xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Mjallby AIF xG
35%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Eleda Stadion.
What was the final score in Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Malmo FF 2 - 0 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Eleda Stadion.
What competition is Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Malmo FF a 47% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Malmo FF and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and Mjallby AIF?
Record (1 meetings): Malmo FF 0W | Draws 0 | Mjallby AIF 1W.
What form are Malmo FF and Mjallby AIF in?
Malmo FF (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Malmo FF's attack at 1.17x the league average against Mjallby AIF's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus Malmo FF's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.4%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
47%
2.13
31%
3.23
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Malmo FF xG
Total xG
1.87
0.70
Mjallby AIF xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.89
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
7%
14.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 10.8 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.0 | 12.6 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Malmo FF and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Malmo FF and 0.70 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Malmo FF come into this having played 60 games, going 34W 17D 9L for 1.98 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.42 PPG from 60 outings (22W 19D 19L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five.
Malmo FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Malmo FF's home form reads 19W 9D 2L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.23 points per game from 30 outings (9W 10D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Malmo FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Malmo FF are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.37 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Malmo FF have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Mjallby AIF in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Malmo FF
Current Season
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Malmo FF and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Malmo FF have gone 34W 17D 9L in their last 60 games (1.98 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 22W 19D 19L in their last 60 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Malmo FF at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Malmo FF's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Malmo FF at home: 2.20 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Malmo FF or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Malmo FF and Mjallby AIF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mjallby AIF have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Malmo FF's record when hosting Mjallby AIF specifically: 2W 0D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Malmo FF
2
Draws
6
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, Malmo FF have won 2, Mjallby AIF have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Malmo FF and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Malmo FF 2-3 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Malmo FF and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Malmo FF 60%, Mjallby AIF 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Malmo FF) and 47% (Mjallby AIF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Malmo FF keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Malmo FF home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Malmo FF play Mjallby AIF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Malmo FF's games and 50% of Mjallby AIF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Malmo FF's matches and 47% of Mjallby AIF's.
Do Malmo FF and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Malmo FF have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Malmo FF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Mjallby AIF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF beat Mjallby AIF 2-0 at Eleda Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Malmo FF 1.17 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.70 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Malmo FF beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Malmo FF attack 1.17 / defence 0.74 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.92 / defence 0.77, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Malmo FF 47% | Draw 31% | Mjallby AIF 22%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Malmo FF 62%, Mjallby AIF 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Malmo FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.42. That form edge translated into the three points. Malmo FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.