Malmo FF 1-2 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Malmo FF at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Mjallby AIF travel to Eleda Stadion to take on Malmo FF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 July 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Malmo FF — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Malmo FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Malmo FF have posted 6W 3D 1L at Eleda Stadion — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Eleda Stadion.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Mjallby AIF have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Malmo FF have the edge — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Malmo FF, 1 for Mjallby AIF and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Malmo FF in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Mjallby AIF in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 19% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 19% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Malmo FF 49% versus Mjallby AIF 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Malmo FF 63% | Mjallby AIF 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Malmo FF 1.96 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Malmo FF attack 1.518 / defence 0.813 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.681 / defence 0.858. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.162. Malmo FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.518 — their λ of 1.96 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 Malmo FF games / 43 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Malmo FF 67% | Draw 23% | Mjallby AIF 10%. Fair-value odds: Malmo FF 1.49 | Draw 4.35 | Mjallby AIF 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Malmo FF (67%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Malmo FF are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Malmo FF 50% | Mjallby AIF 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Eleda Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Jul 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Malmo FF 67% | Draw 23% | Mjallby AIF 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 42% | xG Malmo FF 1.96 / Mjallby AIF 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Malmo FF attack 1.518 / def 0.813 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.681 / def 0.858 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Malmo FF xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Mjallby AIF xG
42%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 9 July 2023 at Eleda Stadion.
What was the final score in Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Malmo FF 1 - 2 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Eleda Stadion.
What competition is Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Malmo FF a 67% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 10% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Malmo FF and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and Mjallby AIF?
Record (3 meetings): Malmo FF 1W | Draws 1 | Mjallby AIF 1W.
What form are Malmo FF and Mjallby AIF in?
Malmo FF (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Malmo FF's attack at 1.52x the league average against Mjallby AIF's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus Malmo FF's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 1-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
67%
1.49
23%
4.33
10%
10.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.2%
Home win
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Malmo FF xG
Total xG
2.60
0.64
Mjallby AIF xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
10.24
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
14%
7.11
Win to Nil
35%
2.83
1%
72.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 9.3 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.2 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Malmo FF and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Malmo FF and 0.64 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Malmo FF come into this having played 43 games, going 24W 8D 11L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-W. The sample for Malmo FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.37 PPG from 43 outings (15W 14D 14L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Malmo FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Malmo FF's home form reads 14W 4D 3L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.38 points per game from 21 outings (8W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Malmo FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Malmo FF are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.00 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Malmo FF
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Malmo FF and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Malmo FF have gone 24W 8D 11L in their last 43 games (1.86 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 15W 14D 14L in their last 43 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Malmo FF at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Malmo FF's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Malmo FF at home: 2.19 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Malmo FF or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Malmo FF and Mjallby AIF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mjallby AIF have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Malmo FF's record when hosting Mjallby AIF specifically: 2W 0D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Malmo FF
2
Draws
6
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, Malmo FF have won 2, Mjallby AIF have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Malmo FF and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Malmo FF 2-3 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Malmo FF and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Malmo FF 48% BTTS, Mjallby AIF 19%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Malmo FF) and 19% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: Malmo FF keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 48%; Mjallby AIF in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Malmo FF home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Malmo FF play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Malmo FF's recent matches and 19% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Malmo FF's recent games and 19% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Malmo FF and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Malmo FF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mjallby AIF defy the odds to beat Malmo FF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Malmo FF 1-2 at Eleda Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Malmo FF 1.96 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.64 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Malmo FF fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Mjallby AIF outscored their 0.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Malmo FF attack 1.52 / defence 0.81 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.68 / defence 0.86, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Malmo FF 67% | Draw 23% | Mjallby AIF 10%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a Mjallby AIF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 10% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Malmo FF 63%, Mjallby AIF 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Malmo FF's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.37. Form was overturned, with Mjallby AIF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Malmo FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.