Malmo FF 0-0 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Malmo FF at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Malmo FF vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Malmo FF host Djurgardens IF at Eleda Stadion in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 August 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Malmo FF — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Malmo FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Malmo FF have posted 8W 1D 1L at Eleda Stadion — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Eleda Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Malmo FF are significantly better at Eleda Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Djurgardens IF have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Djurgardens IF have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Malmo FF at 1.60 PPG versus Djurgardens IF's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Djurgardens IF, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Malmo FF.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2023, ended 0–2 with Djurgardens IF winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Djurgardens IF have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Malmo FF in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Djurgardens IF in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Malmo FF 47% versus Djurgardens IF 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Malmo FF 61% | Djurgardens IF 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Malmo FF 2.36 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Malmo FF attack 1.555 / defence 0.821 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.029 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.209. Malmo FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.555 — their λ of 2.36 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 49 Malmo FF games / 49 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Malmo FF 67% | Draw 18% | Djurgardens IF 15%. Fair-value odds: Malmo FF 1.49 | Draw 5.56 | Djurgardens IF 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Malmo FF (67%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Malmo FF are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.38 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Malmo FF 50% | Djurgardens IF 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Malmo FF vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Eleda Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Malmo FF 67% | Draw 18% | Djurgardens IF 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 58% | xG Malmo FF 2.36 / Djurgardens IF 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Malmo FF attack 1.555 / def 0.821 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.029 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.36
Malmo FF xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Djurgardens IF xG
58%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Malmo FF vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Malmo FF vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Eleda Stadion.
What was the final score in Malmo FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Malmo FF 0 - 0 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Malmo FF vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Eleda Stadion.
What competition is Malmo FF vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Malmo FF vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Malmo FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Malmo FF a 67% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 15% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Malmo FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Malmo FF and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Malmo FF vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and Djurgardens IF?
Record (4 meetings): Malmo FF 0W | Draws 1 | Djurgardens IF 3W.
What form are Malmo FF and Djurgardens IF in?
Malmo FF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Malmo FF's attacking strength (1.55x league average) is weighed against Djurgardens IF's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.36. The same calculation in reverse, Djurgardens IF's attack versus Malmo FF's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.5%), 1-1 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
67%
1.49
18%
5.54
15%
6.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.36
Malmo FF xG
Total xG
3.38
1.02
Djurgardens IF xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.54
18%
Draw
6.77
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
9%
10.62
Win to Nil
24%
4.13
1%
71.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Malmo FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Malmo FF and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 2.36 expected goals for Malmo FF and 1.02 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Malmo FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Malmo FF come into this having played 49 games, going 26W 9D 14L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L. The sample for Malmo FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Djurgardens IF sit at 1.84 PPG from 49 outings (27W 9D 13L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Malmo FF on 1.78 PPG, Djurgardens IF on 1.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Malmo FF's home form reads 16W 4D 4L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Djurgardens IF have taken 1.29 points per game from 24 outings (8W 7D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.84 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Djurgardens IF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Malmo FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Malmo FF are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Djurgardens IF in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Malmo FF
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Malmo FF and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Malmo FF have gone 26W 9D 14L in their last 49 games (1.78 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 27W 9D 13L in their last 49 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Malmo FF at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Malmo FF's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Malmo FF at home: 2.17 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Malmo FF or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Malmo FF and Djurgardens IF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 May 2022, when Djurgardens IF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Malmo FF's record when hosting Djurgardens IF specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Malmo FF
2
Draws
4
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, Malmo FF have won 4, Djurgardens IF have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Malmo FF and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Djurgardens IF 0-1 Malmo FF.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Malmo FF 50%, Djurgardens IF 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Malmo FF) and 42% (Djurgardens IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Malmo FF keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Djurgardens IF in 33%; Djurgardens IF in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Malmo FF home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Malmo FF play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Malmo FF's recent matches and 46% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Malmo FF vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Malmo FF's matches and 42% of Djurgardens IF's.
Do Malmo FF and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Malmo FF have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Malmo FF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Eleda Stadion, Regular Season - 20, as Malmo FF and Djurgardens IF drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Malmo FF 2.36 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.02 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Malmo FF fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Djurgardens IF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Malmo FF attack 1.55 / defence 0.82 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.03 / defence 1.08, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Malmo FF 67% | Draw 18% | Djurgardens IF 15%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Malmo FF 61%, Djurgardens IF 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Malmo FF's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Malmo FF 1.78 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Malmo FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.