Malmo FF 2-2 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Malmo FF at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Malmo FF host Degerfors IF at Eleda Stadion in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Malmo FF stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Malmo FF at Eleda Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Malmo FF are significantly better at Eleda Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Degerfors IF — All Games: 4W 6D 0L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Degerfors IF away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Degerfors IF are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Malmo FF register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Degerfors IF in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Malmo FF have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 past contests while Degerfors IF have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2022, ended 2–0 with Malmo FF winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Malmo FF and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Malmo FF in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Degerfors IF in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Malmo FF 56% versus Degerfors IF 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Malmo FF 56% | Degerfors IF 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Malmo FF 1.64 xG and Degerfors IF 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Malmo FF attack 0.973 / defence 0.884 | Degerfors IF attack 0.891 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.257. Data: 59 Malmo FF games / 59 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Malmo FF 51% | Draw 29% | Degerfors IF 21%. Fair-value odds: Malmo FF 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Degerfors IF 4.76. Malmo FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Malmo FF dominate the H2H record, yet Degerfors IF are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Malmo FF are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Degerfors IF (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Malmo FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Malmo FF 60% | Degerfors IF 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Eleda Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Malmo FF 51% | Draw 29% | Degerfors IF 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Malmo FF 1.64 / Degerfors IF 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Malmo FF attack 0.973 / def 0.884 | Degerfors IF attack 0.891 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Malmo FF xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Degerfors IF xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Eleda Stadion.
What was the final score in Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF?
Malmo FF 2 - 2 Degerfors IF.
Where is Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Eleda Stadion.
What competition is Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF part of?
Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Malmo FF a 51% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Malmo FF and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and Degerfors IF?
Record (3 meetings): Malmo FF 3W | Draws 0 | Degerfors IF 0W.
What form are Malmo FF and Degerfors IF in?
Malmo FF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Degerfors IF (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Malmo FF's attack at 0.97x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Degerfors IF's attack versus Malmo FF's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
51%
1.98
29%
3.49
21%
4.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Malmo FF xG
Total xG
2.63
0.99
Degerfors IF xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
4.82
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
4%
24.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.7 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Malmo FF and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Malmo FF and 0.99 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Malmo FF's recent record stands at 30W 14D 15L from 59 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Degerfors IF, meanwhile, have gone 17W 13D 29L across 59 games — 1.08 PPG, with D-D-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Malmo FF by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Degerfors IF heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Malmo FF have managed 16W 8D 5L from 29 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Degerfors IF's away record stands at 5W 6D 18L across 29 trips, a 0.72 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Malmo FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Malmo FF are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.08 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Defensively: Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Malmo FF
Current Season
Degerfors IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Malmo FF and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Malmo FF have gone 30W 14D 15L in their last 59 games (1.76 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 17W 13D 29L in their last 59 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Malmo FF at home or Degerfors IF away?
Malmo FF's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Malmo FF at home: 1.93 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.72 PPG.
Have Malmo FF or Degerfors IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Degerfors IF in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Malmo FF and Degerfors IF runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jul 2021, when Malmo FF won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Malmo FF's record when hosting Degerfors IF specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Malmo FF
2
Draws
0
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and Degerfors IF?
From 9 meetings on record, Malmo FF have won 7, Degerfors IF have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Malmo FF and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Degerfors IF 0-1 Malmo FF.
Who has won more matches between Malmo FF and Degerfors IF?
Malmo FF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Malmo FF 59%, Degerfors IF 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Malmo FF) and 48% (Degerfors IF).
On the defensive side: Malmo FF keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Degerfors IF in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Malmo FF home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Malmo FF play Degerfors IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Malmo FF's games and 52% of Degerfors IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Malmo FF's recent games and 48% of Degerfors IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Malmo FF and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Malmo FF have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Malmo FF and Degerfors IF share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Eleda Stadion, Regular Season - 30, as Malmo FF and Degerfors IF drew 2-2 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Malmo FF 1.64 xG and Degerfors IF 0.99 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Degerfors IF outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Malmo FF attack 0.97 / defence 0.88 against Degerfors IF attack 0.89 / defence 1.15, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Malmo FF 51% | Draw 29% | Degerfors IF 21%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Malmo FF 56%, Degerfors IF 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Malmo FF's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Malmo FF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.