Kalmar FF 2-2 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kalmar FF at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kalmar FF vs Sirius encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Guldfågeln Arena plays host to Kalmar FF versus Sirius in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Wednesday 3 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kalmar FF have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Kalmar FF at Guldfågeln Arena this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Guldfågeln Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sirius (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Sirius have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Kalmar FF's favour (1.80 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Kalmar FF 1W, Sirius 0W, 4D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Kalmar FF — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Sirius — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 48% versus Sirius 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 42% | Sirius 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.30 xG and Sirius 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 1.081 / defence 0.756 | Sirius attack 0.890 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.012. Kalmar FF's defence rating of 0.756 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Kalmar FF games / 35 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 51% | Draw 30% | Sirius 19%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | Sirius 5.26. Kalmar FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kalmar FF as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kalmar FF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kalmar FF 30% | Sirius 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 51% | Draw 30% | Sirius 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 36% | xG Kalmar FF 1.30 / Sirius 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 1.081 / def 0.756 | Sirius attack 0.890 / def 0.826 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.012 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Sirius xG
36%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Sirius kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Sirius kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 3 May 2023 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs Sirius?
Kalmar FF 2 - 2 Sirius.
Where is Kalmar FF vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Sirius part of?
Kalmar FF vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 51% chance of winning, Sirius a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Kalmar FF and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Sirius?
Record (5 meetings): Kalmar FF 1W | Draws 4 | Sirius 0W.
What form are Kalmar FF and Sirius in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Sirius (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kalmar FF's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Sirius's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (0.89x) against Kalmar FF's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
51%
1.96
30%
3.33
19%
5.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
1.98
0.68
Sirius xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
5.28
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.74
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
26%
3.87
5%
19.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 9.4 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 12.2 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 7.9 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 0.68 for Sirius, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kalmar FF's recent record stands at 28W 14D 18L from 60 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Sirius, meanwhile, have gone 19W 15D 26L across 60 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-D-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kalmar FF by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sirius heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Kalmar FF have managed 16W 7D 7L from 30 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sirius's away record stands at 6W 11D 13L across 30 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kalmar FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.17 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Defensively: Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Current Season
Sirius
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Sirius in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 28W 14D 18L in their last 60 games (1.63 PPG), while Sirius have gone 19W 15D 26L in their last 60 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or Sirius away?
Kalmar FF's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 1.83 PPG; Sirius away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Sirius in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Sirius go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 3-0 on 13 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kalmar FF have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Kalmar FF
5
Draws
4
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 1, Sirius have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Sirius 3-2 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and Sirius?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kalmar FF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 37%, Sirius 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Kalmar FF) and 60% (Sirius).
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sirius in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Sirius?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 57% of Sirius's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 60% of Sirius's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and Sirius tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Sirius in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kalmar FF and Sirius share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF and Sirius finished level at 2-2 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.30 xG and Sirius 0.68 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sirius outscored their 0.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 1.08 / defence 0.76 against Sirius attack 0.89 / defence 0.83, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 51% | Draw 30% | Sirius 19%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 42%, Sirius 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Kalmar FF arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.