Kalmar FF 1-0 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kalmar FF at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Guldfågeln Arena plays host to Kalmar FF versus IF Elfsborg in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 24 July 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Kalmar FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalmar FF's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Guldfågeln Arena this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Guldfågeln Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
IF Elfsborg (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W D D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Kalmar FF, 1.60 for IF Elfsborg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kalmar FF lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 0–3 with IF Elfsborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Kalmar FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
IF Elfsborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 50% versus IF Elfsborg 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 41% | IF Elfsborg 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.25 xG and IF Elfsborg 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.843 / defence 0.800 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.076 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.072. Data: 44 Kalmar FF games / 44 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 43% | Draw 31% | IF Elfsborg 26%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | IF Elfsborg 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kalmar FF as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kalmar FF if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Kalmar FF 30% | IF Elfsborg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Jul 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 43% | Draw 31% | IF Elfsborg 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Kalmar FF 1.25 / IF Elfsborg 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.843 / def 0.800 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.076 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
0.92
IF Elfsborg xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 24 July 2022 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Kalmar FF 1 - 0 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 43% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Kalmar FF and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and IF Elfsborg?
Record (3 meetings): Kalmar FF 0W | Draws 1 | IF Elfsborg 2W.
What form are Kalmar FF and IF Elfsborg in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kalmar FF's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against IF Elfsborg's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (1.08x) against Kalmar FF's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
43%
2.32
31%
3.28
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.17
0.92
IF Elfsborg xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
17%
5.84
8%
13.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 10.5 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 0.92 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 44 outings, Kalmar FF have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 19W 11D 14L record — D-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 22W 9D 13L from 44 games, 1.70 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-L. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Kalmar FF against 1.70 for IF Elfsborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Kalmar FF have posted 1.64 PPG from 22 outings (10W 6D 6L).
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 10W 4D 8L from 22 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.75 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 19W 11D 14L in their last 44 games (1.55 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 22W 9D 13L in their last 44 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or IF Elfsborg away?
Kalmar FF's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 1.64 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IF Elfsborg won 0-4 on 9 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kalmar FF have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Kalmar FF
1
Draws
4
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 5, IF Elfsborg have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Kalmar FF 2-1 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and IF Elfsborg?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kalmar FF see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 41%, IF Elfsborg 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Kalmar FF) and 54% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; IF Elfsborg in 32%; Kalmar FF have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 46% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 54% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kalmar FF edge out IF Elfsborg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF beat IF Elfsborg 1-0 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.25 xG and IF Elfsborg 0.92 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IF Elfsborg landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.84 / defence 0.80 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.08 / defence 1.00, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 43% | Draw 31% | IF Elfsborg 26%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 41%, IF Elfsborg 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 1.55 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kalmar FF win broke the near-deadlock. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.