Kalmar FF 0-4 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kalmar FF at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Hammarby FF travel to Guldfageln Arena to take on Kalmar FF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 August 2026, 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Kalmar FF — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalmar FF's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Guldfageln Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Kalmar FF are significantly better at Guldfageln Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Hammarby FF have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hammarby FF are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Hammarby FF have the better historical record — 6 wins from 9 previous contests against 2 for Kalmar FF.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Jul 2026, ended 0–2 with Hammarby FF winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Hammarby FF have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Kalmar FF in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 48% versus Hammarby FF 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 48% | Hammarby FF 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.48 xG and Hammarby FF 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.988 / defence 0.940 | Hammarby FF attack 0.951 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.659 / away 1.346. Data: 16 Kalmar FF games / 46 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 42% | Draw 29% | Hammarby FF 29%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Hammarby FF 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kalmar FF are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hammarby FF (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kalmar FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kalmar FF 70% | Hammarby FF 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Guldfageln Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 42% | Draw 29% | Hammarby FF 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Kalmar FF 1.48 / Hammarby FF 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.988 / def 0.940 | Hammarby FF attack 0.951 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.659 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Hammarby FF xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 16 August 2026 at Guldfageln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF?
Kalmar FF 0 - 4 Hammarby FF.
Where is Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Guldfageln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF part of?
Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 42% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF?
Record (9 meetings): Kalmar FF 2W | Draws 1 | Hammarby FF 6W.
What form are Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Hammarby FF (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kalmar FF's attack rating (0.99) and Hammarby FF's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Kalmar FF's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
42%
2.39
29%
3.42
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.69
1.20
Hammarby FF xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
13%
7.97
7%
15.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.2 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.20 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kalmar FF come into this having played 46 games, going 23W 13D 10L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hammarby FF sit at 2.00 PPG from 46 outings (28W 8D 10L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kalmar FF on 1.78 PPG, Hammarby FF on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kalmar FF's home form reads 16W 3D 3L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.32 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.78 PPG overall — Kalmar FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hammarby FF have taken 1.50 points per game from 22 outings (9W 6D 7L). That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hammarby FF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kalmar FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 2.09 scored and 0.96 conceded. Hammarby FF's attacking output running into Kalmar FF's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Hammarby FF in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 23W 13D 10L in their last 46 games (1.78 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 28W 8D 10L in their last 46 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or Hammarby FF away?
Kalmar FF's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 2.32 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hammarby FF have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2026, when Hammarby FF won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kalmar FF's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kalmar FF
1
Draws
7
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 2, Hammarby FF have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Kalmar FF 0-4 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Hammarby FF see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 54%, Hammarby FF 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Kalmar FF) and 46% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Hammarby FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Kalmar FF's games and 59% of Hammarby FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 46% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hammarby FF run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Kalmar FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Kalmar FF 0-4 at Guldfageln Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.48 xG and Hammarby FF 1.20 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Kalmar FF fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Hammarby FF outscored their 1.20 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.99 / defence 0.94 against Hammarby FF attack 0.95 / defence 0.90, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 42% | Draw 29% | Hammarby FF 29%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Hammarby FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 48%, Hammarby FF 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 1.78 PPG, Hammarby FF 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.