Kalmar FF 0-0 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BK Hacken at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kalmar FF vs BK Hacken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 30 as Kalmar FF welcome BK Hacken to Guldfågeln Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 December 2020 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Kalmar FF have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Kalmar FF at Guldfågeln Arena this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Guldfågeln Arena this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, BK Hacken stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
BK Hacken away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Kalmar FF) versus 1.40 (BK Hacken). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Kalmar FF trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BK Hacken trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 52% versus BK Hacken 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 55% | BK Hacken 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 0.71 xG and BK Hacken 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.580 / defence 1.412 | BK Hacken attack 0.707 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.116 / away 1.371. Kalmar FF's attack strength of 0.580 is below the league average — the 0.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 29 Kalmar FF games / 29 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 19% | Draw 30% | BK Hacken 52%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 5.26 | Draw 3.33 | BK Hacken 1.92. BK Hacken hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BK Hacken at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BK Hacken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Kalmar FF 40% | BK Hacken 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Dec 2020, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 19% | Draw 30% | BK Hacken 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 39% | xG Kalmar FF 0.71 / BK Hacken 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.580 / def 1.412 | BK Hacken attack 0.707 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.116 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
1.37
BK Hacken xG
39%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs BK Hacken kick off?
Kalmar FF vs BK Hacken kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 6 December 2020 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs BK Hacken?
Kalmar FF 0 - 0 BK Hacken.
Where is Kalmar FF vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs BK Hacken part of?
Kalmar FF vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 19% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 52% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Kalmar FF and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and BK Hacken?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kalmar FF and BK Hacken in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. BK Hacken (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kalmar FF's attack at 0.58x the league average against BK Hacken's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 0.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus Kalmar FF's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
19%
5.35
30%
3.37
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.08
1.37
BK Hacken xG
5.35
19%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
49%
2.04
Win to Nil
5%
21.00
25%
3.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 17.0 | 11.7 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.2 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.37 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 29 outings, Kalmar FF have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 6W 9D 14L record — D-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
BK Hacken's form line: 12W 12D 5L from 29 games, 1.66 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-W.
Put side by side, BK Hacken are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kalmar FF.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Kalmar FF have posted 0.57 PPG from 14 outings (1W 5D 8L).
On the road, BK Hacken have gone 3W 8D 3L from 14 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.66 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BK Hacken's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 1.55 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: BK Hacken in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Current Season
BK Hacken
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 6W 9D 14L in their last 29 games (0.93 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 12W 12D 5L in their last 29 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or BK Hacken away?
BK Hacken's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 0.57 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or BK Hacken been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, BK Hacken in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kalmar FF and BK Hacken runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2021, when Kalmar FF won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kalmar FF's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Kalmar FF
3
Draws
3
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 4, BK Hacken have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when BK Hacken 1-1 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and BK Hacken?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 50%, BK Hacken 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Kalmar FF) and 43% (BK Hacken).
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play BK Hacken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Kalmar FF's games and 64% of BK Hacken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kalmar FF vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 43% of BK Hacken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and BK Hacken tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kalmar FF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 30, as Kalmar FF and BK Hacken drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 0.71 xG and BK Hacken 1.37 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. BK Hacken landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.58 / defence 1.41 against BK Hacken attack 0.71 / defence 1.10, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 19% | Draw 30% | BK Hacken 52%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 55%, BK Hacken 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
BK Hacken's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, BK Hacken arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.