Kalmar FF 1-0 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kalmar FF at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees AIK Stockholm travel to Guldfågeln Arena to take on Kalmar FF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 August 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kalmar FF stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Guldfågeln Arena, Kalmar FF have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Guldfågeln Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, AIK Stockholm have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Kalmar FF) versus 1.90 (AIK Stockholm). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Kalmar FF, 2 for AIK Stockholm and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2022, ended 0–1 with AIK Stockholm winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Kalmar FF in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
AIK Stockholm in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 50% versus AIK Stockholm 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 41% | AIK Stockholm 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.39 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.850 / defence 0.715 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.260 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.135. AIK Stockholm have an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — the away xG of 1.02 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Kalmar FF's defence rating of 0.715 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Kalmar FF games / 46 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 45% | Draw 27% | AIK Stockholm 27%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | AIK Stockholm 3.70. Kalmar FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kalmar FF at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kalmar FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Kalmar FF 20% | AIK Stockholm 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Aug 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 45% | Draw 27% | AIK Stockholm 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Kalmar FF 1.39 / AIK Stockholm 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.850 / def 0.715 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.260 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
1.02
AIK Stockholm xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 7 August 2022 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Kalmar FF 1 - 0 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 45% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm?
Record (4 meetings): Kalmar FF 1W | Draws 1 | AIK Stockholm 2W.
What form are Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kalmar FF's attack at 0.85x the league average against AIK Stockholm's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus Kalmar FF's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
45%
2.22
27%
3.65
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.41
1.02
AIK Stockholm xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
7%
14.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.02 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kalmar FF come into this having played 46 games, going 20W 11D 15L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AIK Stockholm sit at 1.96 PPG from 46 outings (27W 9D 10L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AIK Stockholm carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Kalmar FF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Kalmar FF's home form reads 11W 6D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, AIK Stockholm have taken 1.30 points per game from 23 outings (8W 6D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AIK Stockholm's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.50 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 20W 11D 15L in their last 46 games (1.54 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 27W 9D 10L in their last 46 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Kalmar FF's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 1.70 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AIK Stockholm have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Kalmar FF's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Kalmar FF
3
Draws
4
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 3, AIK Stockholm have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when AIK Stockholm 1-0 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kalmar FF see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 39%, AIK Stockholm 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Kalmar FF) and 48% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Kalmar FF have failed to score in 26% of games; AIK Stockholm in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play AIK Stockholm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 56% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 48% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kalmar FF edge out AIK Stockholm 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF beat AIK Stockholm 1-0 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.39 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.02 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AIK Stockholm landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.85 / defence 0.71 against AIK Stockholm attack 1.26 / defence 1.12, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 45% | Draw 27% | AIK Stockholm 27%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 41%, AIK Stockholm 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AIK Stockholm arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.54. Form was overturned, with Kalmar FF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.