IFK Goteborg 2-0 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Goteborg at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Goteborg vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 23 as IFK Goteborg welcome Orebro SK to Gamla Ullevi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 October 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
IFK Goteborg — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Gamla Ullevi, IFK Goteborg have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orebro SK stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (IFK Goteborg) versus 0.80 (Orebro SK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for IFK Goteborg, 1 for Orebro SK and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
IFK Goteborg trading profile (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Orebro SK trading profile (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 54% versus Orebro SK 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 48% | Orebro SK 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.74 xG and Orebro SK 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.849 / defence 1.137 | Orebro SK attack 0.788 / defence 1.382. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.046. Orebro SK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.382 — this is suppressing IFK Goteborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 IFK Goteborg games / 52 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 55% | Draw 26% | Orebro SK 19%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Orebro SK 5.26. The model has a clear lean to IFK Goteborg (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Goteborg as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: IFK Goteborg 60% | Orebro SK 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs Orebro SK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 55% | Draw 26% | Orebro SK 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.74 / Orebro SK 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.849 / def 1.137 | Orebro SK attack 0.788 / def 1.382 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Orebro SK xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs Orebro SK kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs Orebro SK kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs Orebro SK?
IFK Goteborg 2 - 0 Orebro SK.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs Orebro SK part of?
IFK Goteborg vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 55% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both IFK Goteborg and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Orebro SK?
Record (3 meetings): IFK Goteborg 0W | Draws 2 | Orebro SK 1W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and Orebro SK in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Orebro SK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
IFK Goteborg's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Orebro SK's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus IFK Goteborg's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
55%
1.82
26%
3.85
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.67
0.94
Orebro SK xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
22%
4.64
3%
29.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.2 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 0.94 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs Orebro SK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IFK Goteborg come into this having played 52 games, going 12W 20D 20L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Orebro SK sit at 1.12 PPG from 52 outings (16W 10D 26L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Goteborg on 1.08 PPG, Orebro SK on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
IFK Goteborg's home form reads 6W 8D 12L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Orebro SK have taken 0.81 points per game from 26 outings (6W 3D 17L).
Goals in Recent Form
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.02 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Blended
Orebro SK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 12W 20D 20L in their last 52 games (1.08 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 16W 10D 26L in their last 52 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or Orebro SK away?
IFK Goteborg's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.00 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
IFK Goteborg's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
IFK Goteborg
2
Draws
1
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Orebro SK?
From 4 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 1, Orebro SK have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2021, when IFK Goteborg 2-0 Orebro SK.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 54%, Orebro SK 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (IFK Goteborg) and 62% (Orebro SK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg have failed to score in 27% of games; Orebro SK in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play Orebro SK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 42% of Orebro SK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Goteborg vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of IFK Goteborg's matches and 62% of Orebro SK's.
Do IFK Goteborg and Orebro SK tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Goteborg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Orebro SK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg beat Orebro SK 2-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 23, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.74 xG and Orebro SK 0.94 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Orebro SK landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.85 / defence 1.14 against Orebro SK attack 0.79 / defence 1.38, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 55% | Draw 26% | Orebro SK 19%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 48%, Orebro SK 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Orebro SK's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.08 PPG, Orebro SK 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Goteborg win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.