IFK Goteborg 1-1 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Goteborg at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IFK Goteborg host BK Hacken at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 May 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Goteborg stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, IFK Goteborg have posted 2W 3D 5L at Gamla Ullevi — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
BK Hacken — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
BK Hacken's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — IFK Goteborg at 1.40 PPG versus BK Hacken's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
IFK Goteborg in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
BK Hacken in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 57% versus BK Hacken 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 50% | BK Hacken 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.28 xG and BK Hacken 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 1.097 / defence 1.165 | BK Hacken attack 0.861 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.084. Data: 34 IFK Goteborg games / 34 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 40% | Draw 29% | BK Hacken 31%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | BK Hacken 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IFK Goteborg are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Goteborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: IFK Goteborg 50% | BK Hacken 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 40% | Draw 29% | BK Hacken 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.28 / BK Hacken 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 1.097 / def 1.165 | BK Hacken attack 0.861 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.09
BK Hacken xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 8 May 2021 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken?
IFK Goteborg 1 - 1 BK Hacken.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken part of?
IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 40% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. BK Hacken (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from IFK Goteborg's attack rating (1.10) and BK Hacken's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus IFK Goteborg's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
40%
2.49
29%
3.43
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.37
1.09
BK Hacken xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
9%
11.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.2 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.09 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IFK Goteborg's recent record stands at 7W 13D 10L from 30 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five.
BK Hacken, meanwhile, have gone 12W 13D 5L across 30 games — 1.63 PPG, with D-W-D-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours BK Hacken by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over IFK Goteborg heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, IFK Goteborg have managed 3W 5D 7L from 15 games — 0.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
BK Hacken's away record stands at 3W 9D 3L across 15 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.63 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BK Hacken's season.
The Goals Picture
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 1.50 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: BK Hacken in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
BK Hacken
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 7W 13D 10L in their last 30 games (1.13 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 12W 13D 5L in their last 30 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or BK Hacken away?
BK Hacken's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 0.93 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.20 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or BK Hacken been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, BK Hacken in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2022, when BK Hacken won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Goteborg's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
IFK Goteborg
1
Draws
6
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 3, BK Hacken have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when IFK Goteborg 0-2 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 53%, BK Hacken 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (IFK Goteborg) and 40% (BK Hacken).
On the defensive side: BK Hacken in 33%; IFK Goteborg have failed to score in 27% of games; BK Hacken in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play BK Hacken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of IFK Goteborg's games and 60% of BK Hacken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 40% of BK Hacken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken finished level at 1-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 5, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.28 xG and BK Hacken 1.09 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 1.10 / defence 1.17 against BK Hacken attack 0.86 / defence 0.92, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 40% | Draw 29% | BK Hacken 31%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 50%, BK Hacken 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
BK Hacken's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, BK Hacken arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.