IF Elfsborg 2-1 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Elfsborg vs Orebro SK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 10 as IF Elfsborg welcome Orebro SK to Borås Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 July 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IF Elfsborg stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IF Elfsborg have posted 5W 3D 2L at Borås Arena — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Orebro SK — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
IF Elfsborg carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, IF Elfsborg have won 0, Orebro SK 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2020, ended 2–3 with Orebro SK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
IF Elfsborg trading profile (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Orebro SK trading profile (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 62% versus Orebro SK 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 51% | Orebro SK 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.98 xG and Orebro SK 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 0.981 / defence 1.120 | Orebro SK attack 0.841 / defence 1.340. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.057. Orebro SK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.340 — this is suppressing IF Elfsborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 IF Elfsborg games / 39 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 59% | Draw 24% | Orebro SK 17%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Orebro SK 5.88. The model has a clear lean to IF Elfsborg (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Elfsborg at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. This conflicts with form data: IF Elfsborg 60% | Orebro SK 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Orebro SK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Jul 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 59% | Draw 24% | Orebro SK 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.98 / Orebro SK 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 0.981 / def 1.120 | Orebro SK attack 0.841 / def 1.340 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Orebro SK xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Orebro SK kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Orebro SK kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 11 July 2021 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Orebro SK?
IF Elfsborg 2 - 1 Orebro SK.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Orebro SK part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 59% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Orebro SK?
Record (2 meetings): IF Elfsborg 0W | Draws 1 | Orebro SK 1W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Orebro SK in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates IF Elfsborg's attack at 0.98x the league average against Orebro SK's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus IF Elfsborg's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
59%
1.70
24%
4.15
17%
5.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.97
1.00
Orebro SK xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
5.85
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
14%
7.22
Win to Nil
22%
4.60
2%
42.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.00 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Orebro SK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, IF Elfsborg have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 16W 16D 7L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orebro SK's form line: 14W 7D 18L from 39 games, 1.26 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IF Elfsborg on 1.64 PPG, Orebro SK on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, IF Elfsborg have posted 1.65 PPG from 20 outings (8W 9D 3L).
On the road, Orebro SK have gone 5W 3D 12L from 20 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.08 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Elfsborg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
Orebro SK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 16W 16D 7L in their last 39 games (1.64 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 14W 7D 18L in their last 39 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Orebro SK away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.65 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IF Elfsborg and Orebro SK runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: IF Elfsborg have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
IF Elfsborg's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
IF Elfsborg
1
Draws
1
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Orebro SK?
From 4 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 2, Orebro SK have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 4 December 2021, when Orebro SK 2-3 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Orebro SK?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 65%, Orebro SK 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (IF Elfsborg) and 60% (Orebro SK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 10% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orebro SK in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Orebro SK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 40% of Orebro SK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 60% of Orebro SK's.
Do IF Elfsborg and Orebro SK tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IF Elfsborg edge out Orebro SK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Orebro SK 2-1 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.98 xG and Orebro SK 1.00 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 0.98 / defence 1.12 against Orebro SK attack 0.84 / defence 1.34, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 59% | Draw 24% | Orebro SK 17%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 51%, Orebro SK 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (39 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Orebro SK's trading profile (39 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.64 PPG, Orebro SK 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.