IF Elfsborg 1-2 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 11 as IF Elfsborg welcome Hammarby FF to Borås Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 July 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Odds Analysis
Hammarby FF are the shorter-priced side — market prices: IF Elfsborg 3.68 (25%) | Draw 3.58 (26%) | Hammarby FF 1.89 (49%).
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IF Elfsborg have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's home record at Borås Arena: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hammarby FF — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (IF Elfsborg) versus 1.40 (Hammarby FF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. IF Elfsborg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Hammarby FF in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Hammarby FF have the better historical record — 5 wins from 9 previous contests against 2 for IF Elfsborg.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 0–3 with Hammarby FF winning.
It is worth noting that Hammarby FF have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
IF Elfsborg in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 54% versus Hammarby FF 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 56% | Hammarby FF 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.50 xG and Hammarby FF 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 0.950 / defence 0.732 | Hammarby FF attack 0.842 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.672 / away 1.469. IF Elfsborg's defence rating of 0.732 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 IF Elfsborg games / 41 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 51% | Draw 27% | Hammarby FF 22%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Hammarby FF 4.55. IF Elfsborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 51% but the market prices Hammarby FF shorter — model and market disagree on the likely winner; consider draw no bet on the home side.
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Elfsborg at 51% — moderate model lean. The model sees IF Elfsborg as more likely than the market's pricing reflects — Poisson 51% versus the market's fair-implied 25% (priced at 3.68). With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence. The market (2.11, fair-implied 44%) is broadly in line with the Poisson probability.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: IF Elfsborg 70% | Hammarby FF 60% from recent games — a notable divergence. Market pricing (2.20, fair-implied 42%) is broadly in line with the Poisson read on BTTS.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Jul 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 51% | Draw 27% | Hammarby FF 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.50 / Hammarby FF 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 0.950 / def 0.732 | Hammarby FF attack 0.842 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.672 / away 1.469 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (51%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• 1X2 market: IF Elfsborg 3.68 (impl 25%) | Draw 3.58 (impl 26%) | Hammarby FF 1.89 (impl 49%) • Market favourite: Hammarby FF at 1.89 • Poisson vs market contradiction: market prices Hammarby FF as favourite (implied 49%) but Poisson rates IF Elfsborg higher at 51% — model diverges from the market; potential value on the home side • IF Elfsborg Win: Poisson 51% vs market fair-implied 25% (25pp gap) — the model sees IF Elfsborg as more likely than the market's pricing reflects. • Hammarby FF Win: Poisson 22% vs market fair-implied 49% (27pp gap) — the model sees Hammarby FF as less likely than the market's pricing reflects. • Goals market: Over 2.5 1.69 (impl 59%) / Under 2.5 2.11 (impl 47%) | Poisson Over 2.5 probability 43% • Goals: Poisson rates Over 2.5 at 43% vs the market's fair-implied 56% (13pp gap) — the model sees Over 2.5 as less likely than the market's pricing reflects. • BTTS market: BTTS Yes 1.60 (impl 63%) / No 2.20 (impl 46%) | Poisson BTTS probability 47% • BTTS: Poisson rates Yes at 47% vs the market's fair-implied 58% (11pp gap) — the model sees BTTS Yes as less likely than the market's pricing reflects.
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Hammarby FF xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 5 July 2026 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF?
IF Elfsborg 1 - 2 Hammarby FF.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 51% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF?
Record (9 meetings): IF Elfsborg 2W | Draws 2 | Hammarby FF 5W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Hammarby FF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF?
1X2 market: IF Elfsborg 3.68 (impl 25%) | Draw 3.58 (impl 26%) | Hammarby FF 1.89 (impl 49%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates IF Elfsborg's attack at 0.95x the league average against Hammarby FF's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus IF Elfsborg's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
51%
1.98
27%
3.66
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.41
0.91
Hammarby FF xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
5%
20.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.2 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 0.91 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IF Elfsborg come into this having played 41 games, going 16W 10D 15L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-D. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hammarby FF sit at 1.93 PPG from 41 outings (24W 7D 10L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
IF Elfsborg's home form reads 10W 5D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Hammarby FF have taken 1.45 points per game from 20 outings (8W 5D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hammarby FF's season.
Goals in Recent Form
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 2.05 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 16W 10D 15L in their last 41 games (1.41 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 24W 7D 10L in their last 41 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Hammarby FF away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.75 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.45 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Hammarby FF have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jul 2022, when Hammarby FF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Elfsborg's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
IF Elfsborg
2
Draws
6
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 2, Hammarby FF have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-2 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 60%, Hammarby FF 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (IF Elfsborg) and 45% (Hammarby FF).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Hammarby FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of IF Elfsborg's games and 55% of Hammarby FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of IF Elfsborg's recent games and 45% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hammarby FF defy the odds to beat IF Elfsborg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat IF Elfsborg 1-2 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.50 xG and Hammarby FF 0.91 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Hammarby FF outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 0.95 / defence 0.73 against Hammarby FF attack 0.84 / defence 0.95, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 51% | Draw 27% | Hammarby FF 22%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Hammarby FF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 56%, Hammarby FF 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.41. Form held, and they took the win. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.