IF Elfsborg 2-2 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours IF Elfsborg (69%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as IF Elfsborg face Degerfors IF.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF meet at Borås Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 November 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
IF Elfsborg's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 7W 0D 3L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
IF Elfsborg's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Borås Arena this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Borås Arena.
Degerfors IF have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Degerfors IF have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward IF Elfsborg. A 1.30 PPG lead over Degerfors IF (2.10 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours IF Elfsborg, who have won 4 of the last 5 meetings against Degerfors IF — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2023, ended 2–1 with IF Elfsborg winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both IF Elfsborg and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
IF Elfsborg half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Degerfors IF half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 48% versus Degerfors IF 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 55% | Degerfors IF 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 2.18 xG and Degerfors IF 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.177 / defence 0.853 | Degerfors IF attack 0.767 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.245. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing IF Elfsborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 IF Elfsborg games / 58 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 69% | Draw 19% | Degerfors IF 13%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.45 | Draw 5.26 | Degerfors IF 7.69. The model has a clear lean to IF Elfsborg (69%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Elfsborg are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 40% | Degerfors IF 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 69% | Draw 19% | Degerfors IF 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 49% | xG IF Elfsborg 2.18 / Degerfors IF 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.177 / def 0.853 | Degerfors IF attack 0.767 / def 1.246 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Degerfors IF xG
49%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF?
IF Elfsborg 2 - 2 Degerfors IF.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 69% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 13% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF?
Record (5 meetings): IF Elfsborg 4W | Draws 1 | Degerfors IF 0W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Degerfors IF (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates IF Elfsborg's attack at 1.18x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 2.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (0.77x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
69%
1.46
19%
5.34
13%
7.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.99
0.81
Degerfors IF xG
1.46
69%
Home win
5.34
19%
Draw
7.89
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
11%
8.84
Win to Nil
30%
3.29
1%
69.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 0.81 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IF Elfsborg's recent record stands at 33W 13D 12L from 58 games, a 1.93 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Degerfors IF, meanwhile, have gone 14W 14D 30L across 58 games — 0.97 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours IF Elfsborg by 0.96 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Degerfors IF heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, IF Elfsborg have managed 18W 7D 4L from 29 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Degerfors IF's away record stands at 4W 6D 19L across 29 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.02 scored and 1.84 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
Degerfors IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 33W 13D 12L in their last 58 games (1.93 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 14W 14D 30L in their last 58 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Degerfors IF away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 2.10 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.62 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Degerfors IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Degerfors IF in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IF Elfsborg won 0-6 on 1 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
IF Elfsborg
2
Draws
1
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF?
From 9 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 6, Degerfors IF have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Degerfors IF 0-1 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 52%, Degerfors IF 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (IF Elfsborg) and 55% (Degerfors IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Degerfors IF in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Degerfors IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of IF Elfsborg's games and 59% of Degerfors IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 55% of Degerfors IF's.
Do IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 29, as IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF drew 2-2 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 2.18 xG and Degerfors IF 0.81 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Degerfors IF outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.18 / defence 0.85 against Degerfors IF attack 0.77 / defence 1.25, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 69% | Draw 19% | Degerfors IF 13%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 55%, Degerfors IF 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.