IF Elfsborg 0-3 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 55%, yet in-form AIK Stockholm provide a compelling counter-argument — this IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees AIK Stockholm travel to Borås Arena to take on IF Elfsborg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 November 2025, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IF Elfsborg have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, IF Elfsborg have posted 4W 2D 4L at Borås Arena — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — IF Elfsborg are significantly better at Borås Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AIK Stockholm stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, AIK Stockholm have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. AIK Stockholm's 1.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of IF Elfsborg's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for IF Elfsborg, 3 for AIK Stockholm and 1 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2025, ended 0–2 with AIK Stockholm winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
IF Elfsborg trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
AIK Stockholm trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 57% versus AIK Stockholm 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 64% | AIK Stockholm 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 2.15 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.315 / defence 1.172 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.818 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.394. IF Elfsborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.315 — their λ of 2.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 58 IF Elfsborg games / 58 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 55% | Draw 22% | AIK Stockholm 23%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | AIK Stockholm 4.35. The model has a clear lean to IF Elfsborg (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.15 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Elfsborg at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AIK Stockholm (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.48 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 70% | AIK Stockholm 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Nov 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 55% | Draw 22% | AIK Stockholm 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 66% | xG IF Elfsborg 2.15 / AIK Stockholm 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.315 / def 1.172 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.818 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.394 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.34
AIK Stockholm xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 2 November 2025 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm?
IF Elfsborg 0 - 3 AIK Stockholm.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm part of?
IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 55% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm?
Record (8 meetings): IF Elfsborg 4W | Draws 1 | AIK Stockholm 3W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates IF Elfsborg's attack at 1.31x the league average against AIK Stockholm's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 2.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus IF Elfsborg's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
55%
1.81
22%
4.61
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
3.48
1.34
AIK Stockholm xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
12%
8.54
Win to Nil
15%
6.87
3%
37.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.34 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, IF Elfsborg have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 25W 10D 23L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
AIK Stockholm's form line: 29W 12D 17L from 58 games, 1.71 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: IF Elfsborg on 1.47 PPG, AIK Stockholm on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, IF Elfsborg have posted 1.86 PPG from 29 outings (16W 6D 7L).
On the road, AIK Stockholm have gone 12W 5D 12L from 29 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.43 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 25W 10D 23L in their last 58 games (1.47 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 29W 12D 17L in their last 58 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or AIK Stockholm away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.86 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.41 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2024, when IF Elfsborg won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Elfsborg's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IF Elfsborg
2
Draws
4
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 4, AIK Stockholm have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-1 AIK Stockholm.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 66%, AIK Stockholm 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for IF Elfsborg and 48% for AIK Stockholm. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play AIK Stockholm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of IF Elfsborg's games and 52% of AIK Stockholm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 48% of AIK Stockholm's.
Do IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AIK Stockholm run riot with a 0-3 hammering of IF Elfsborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat IF Elfsborg 0-3 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 2.15 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.34 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. IF Elfsborg fell 2.1 short of their projected output. AIK Stockholm outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.31 / defence 1.17 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.82 / defence 1.08, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 55% | Draw 22% | AIK Stockholm 23%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a AIK Stockholm win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 64%, AIK Stockholm 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.47 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.