IF Brommapojkarna 0-5 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 9 as IF Brommapojkarna welcome Djurgardens IF to Grimsta IP. Kick-off is set for Thursday 16 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IF Brommapojkarna stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Grimsta IP, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Djurgardens IF — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Djurgardens IF have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Djurgardens IF's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of IF Brommapojkarna's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, IF Brommapojkarna have won 0, Djurgardens IF 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with Djurgardens IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
IF Brommapojkarna trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Djurgardens IF trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Brommapojkarna 62% versus Djurgardens IF 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Brommapojkarna 67% | Djurgardens IF 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 1.14 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.810 / defence 1.218 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.089 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.614 / away 1.377. Data: 38 IF Brommapojkarna games / 38 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 24% | Draw 23% | Djurgardens IF 53%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 4.17 | Draw 4.35 | Djurgardens IF 1.89. Djurgardens IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: IF Brommapojkarna 60% | Djurgardens IF 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Thursday 16 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 24% | Draw 23% | Djurgardens IF 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG IF Brommapojkarna 1.14 / Djurgardens IF 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.810 / def 1.218 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.089 / def 0.875 | league avg home 1.614 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Djurgardens IF xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 16 May 2024 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF?
IF Brommapojkarna 0 - 5 Djurgardens IF.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 24% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 53% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Djurgardens IF?
Record (2 meetings): IF Brommapojkarna 0W | Draws 0 | Djurgardens IF 2W.
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Djurgardens IF in?
IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates IF Brommapojkarna's attack at 0.81x the league average against Djurgardens IF's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Djurgardens IF's attack versus IF Brommapojkarna's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
24%
4.22
23%
4.36
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
2.97
1.83
Djurgardens IF xG
4.22
24%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
16%
6.21
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
4%
26.18
17%
5.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.83 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IF Brommapojkarna's recent record stands at 29W 9D 22L from 60 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Djurgardens IF, meanwhile, have gone 32W 11D 17L across 60 games — 1.78 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IF Brommapojkarna on 1.60 PPG, Djurgardens IF on 1.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, IF Brommapojkarna have managed 16W 5D 9L from 30 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Djurgardens IF's away record stands at 11W 8D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.37 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Djurgardens IF's season.
The Goals Picture
IF Brommapojkarna are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.60 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Brommapojkarna have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Current Season
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
IF Brommapojkarna have gone 29W 9D 22L in their last 60 games (1.60 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 32W 11D 17L in their last 60 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Brommapojkarna at home or Djurgardens IF away?
IF Brommapojkarna's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Brommapojkarna at home: 1.77 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.37 PPG.
Have IF Brommapojkarna or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Brommapojkarna have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IF Brommapojkarna and Djurgardens IF runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 22 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 May 2024, when Djurgardens IF won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Brommapojkarna's record when hosting Djurgardens IF specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
IF Brommapojkarna
0
Draws
6
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Djurgardens IF?
From 7 meetings on record, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, Djurgardens IF have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Djurgardens IF 1-2 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between IF Brommapojkarna and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Djurgardens IF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Brommapojkarna 63%, Djurgardens IF 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (IF Brommapojkarna) and 40% (Djurgardens IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF in 37%; Djurgardens IF in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Brommapojkarna play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of IF Brommapojkarna's recent matches and 43% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of IF Brommapojkarna's matches and 40% of Djurgardens IF's.
Do IF Brommapojkarna and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
IF Brommapojkarna have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Djurgardens IF run riot with a 0-5 hammering of IF Brommapojkarna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat IF Brommapojkarna 0-5 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 9, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.14 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.83 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. IF Brommapojkarna fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Djurgardens IF outscored their 1.83 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.81 / defence 1.22 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.09 / defence 0.88, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 24% | Draw 23% | Djurgardens IF 53%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 67%, Djurgardens IF 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Brommapojkarna 1.60 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.