Helsingborg 1-3 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Helsingborg take on Varbergs BoIS FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Olympia plays host to Helsingborg versus Varbergs BoIS FC in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 15 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Helsingborg have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helsingborg's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at Olympia this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Varbergs BoIS FC's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Varbergs BoIS FC's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Helsingborg against 1.00 for Varbergs BoIS FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Helsingborg lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jul 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Helsingborg — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Varbergs BoIS FC — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 46% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 49% | Varbergs BoIS FC 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.10 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.587 / defence 1.144 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.838 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.137. Helsingborg's attack strength of 0.587 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Varbergs BoIS FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing Helsingborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Helsingborg games / 55 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 33% | Draw 34% | Varbergs BoIS FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Varbergs BoIS FC 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Helsingborg 50% | Varbergs BoIS FC 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 33% | Draw 34% | Varbergs BoIS FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 47% | xG Helsingborg 1.10 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.587 / def 1.144 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.838 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Helsingborg 1 - 3 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 33% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Helsingborg and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Record (3 meetings): Helsingborg 1W | Draws 1 | Varbergs BoIS FC 1W.
What form are Helsingborg and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Helsingborg's attacking strength (0.59x league average) is weighed against Varbergs BoIS FC's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — Varbergs BoIS FC's attack (0.84x) against Helsingborg's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 25/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.02
34%
2.93
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.19
1.09
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
3.02
33%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
11%
8.99
11%
9.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.2 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Helsingborg and 1.09 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 55 outings, Helsingborg have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 17W 13D 25L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Varbergs BoIS FC's form line: 15W 17D 23L from 55 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Helsingborg against 1.13 for Varbergs BoIS FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Helsingborg have posted 1.11 PPG from 27 outings (8W 6D 13L).
On the road, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 6W 7D 14L from 27 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Helsingborg are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.04 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Blended
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 17W 13D 25L in their last 55 games (1.16 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 15W 17D 23L in their last 55 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
Helsingborg's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.11 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Helsingborg or Varbergs BoIS FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Varbergs BoIS FC in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 19 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Varbergs BoIS FC won 0-3 on 15 Jun 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Helsingborg have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Varbergs BoIS FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Helsingborg
1
Draws
5
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 9 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 3, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Helsingborg 1-3 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 37%, Varbergs BoIS FC 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Helsingborg) and 59% (Varbergs BoIS FC).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Helsingborg have failed to score in 37% of games; Varbergs BoIS FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 63% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Helsingborg's recent games and 59% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Varbergs BoIS FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Helsingborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Varbergs BoIS FC beat Helsingborg 1-3 at Olympia, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.10 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.09 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Varbergs BoIS FC outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.59 / defence 1.14 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.27, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 33% | Draw 34% | Varbergs BoIS FC 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Varbergs BoIS FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 49%, Varbergs BoIS FC 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helsingborg 1.16 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Varbergs BoIS FC win broke the near-deadlock. Helsingborg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.