Helsingborg 0-1 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helsingborg vs Mjallby AIF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 20 as Helsingborg welcome Mjallby AIF to Olympia. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 August 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Helsingborg — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Helsingborg have posted 2W 3D 5L at Olympia — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Mjallby AIF have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Mjallby AIF have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Helsingborg at 0.90 PPG versus Mjallby AIF's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Mjallby AIF have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Helsingborg's 0 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2022, ended 1–2 with Mjallby AIF winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Mjallby AIF have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Helsingborg in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Mjallby AIF in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 45% versus Mjallby AIF 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Helsingborg 49% | Mjallby AIF 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 0.57 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.544 / defence 1.043 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.754 / defence 0.694. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.142. Helsingborg's attack strength of 0.544 is below the league average — the 0.57 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Mjallby AIF's defence strength of 0.694 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 19 Helsingborg games / 49 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 21% | Draw 38% | Mjallby AIF 41%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 4.76 | Draw 2.63 | Mjallby AIF 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 18% | BTTS probability 27% | Total xG 1.47. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 82% probability — total xG of 1.47 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 73% — Helsingborg's lower xG of 0.57 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 27%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 38% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 18% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 27%. Form rates corroborate: Helsingborg 40% | Mjallby AIF 10% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 21% | Draw 38% | Mjallby AIF 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 18% | BTTS 27% | xG Helsingborg 0.57 / Mjallby AIF 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.544 / def 1.043 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.754 / def 0.694 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.57
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Mjallby AIF xG
27%
BTTS
44%
Over 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Helsingborg vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Helsingborg 0 - 1 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Helsingborg vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Helsingborg vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 21% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 41% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 27% probability that both Helsingborg and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 18%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Mjallby AIF?
Record (3 meetings): Helsingborg 0W | Draws 0 | Mjallby AIF 3W.
What form are Helsingborg and Mjallby AIF in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Helsingborg's attack rating (0.54) and Mjallby AIF's defence rating (0.69), the model arrives at 0.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus Helsingborg's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 24.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (19.2%), 1-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 57% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
21%
4.72
38%
2.62
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
23.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
20.7%
Away win
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.57
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
1.47
0.90
Mjallby AIF xG
4.72
21%
Home win
2.62
38%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
43%
Over 1.5
2.33
57%
Under 1.5
1.75
18%
Over 2.5
5.56
82%
Under 2.5
1.22
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
27%
BTTS Yes
3.77
73%
BTTS No
1.36
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
57%
1.76
Win to Nil
9%
11.59
23%
4.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23.1 | 20.7 | 9.3 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.8 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.6%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 0.57 expected goals for Helsingborg and 0.90 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 1.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Helsingborg's recent record stands at 16W 13D 20L from 49 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjallby AIF, meanwhile, have gone 16W 18D 15L across 49 games — 1.35 PPG, with W-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Helsingborg on 1.24 PPG, Mjallby AIF on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Helsingborg have managed 7W 6D 11L from 24 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mjallby AIF's away record stands at 7W 8D 9L across 24 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Helsingborg are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.08 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 16W 13D 20L in their last 49 games (1.24 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 16W 18D 15L in their last 49 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Mjallby AIF's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.12 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Helsingborg or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Helsingborg and Mjallby AIF runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2022, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Mjallby AIF have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Helsingborg's record when hosting Mjallby AIF specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Helsingborg
0
Draws
4
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Mjallby AIF?
From 4 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 0, Mjallby AIF have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2022, when Helsingborg 0-1 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Helsingborg 38% BTTS, Mjallby AIF 29%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Helsingborg and 25% for Mjallby AIF.
On the defensive side: Helsingborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 42%; Helsingborg have failed to score in 38% of games; Mjallby AIF in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 29% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Helsingborg's recent games and 25% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mjallby AIF edge out Helsingborg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Helsingborg 0-1 at Olympia, Regular Season - 20, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 0.57 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.90 xG, a combined 1.47. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.54 / defence 1.04 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.75 / defence 0.69, drawn from 19/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 21% | Draw 38% | Mjallby AIF 41%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 18%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 44% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 27% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 49%, Mjallby AIF 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helsingborg 1.24 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Helsingborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.