Hammarby FF 0-0 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sirius at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hammarby FF vs Sirius encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 7 as Hammarby FF welcome Sirius to Tele2 Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 July 2020 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Hammarby FF have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 outings — a 1.17 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Hammarby FF have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hammarby FF's home record at Tele2 Arena: 2W 0D 1L from 3 Allsvenskan appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.17 — Hammarby FF are significantly better at Tele2 Arena than their overall form suggests.
Sirius — All Games: 3W 2D 1L from 6 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.83 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.33. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sirius have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Sirius's 1.83 PPG return is 0.66 points per game ahead of Hammarby FF's 1.17 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sirius in-play and half-time data (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 50% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 33% versus Sirius 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 50% | Sirius 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 0.96 xG and Sirius 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 0.933 / defence 0.958 | Sirius attack 0.978 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 0.972 / away 1.209. Data: 6 Hammarby FF games / 6 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 31% | Draw 30% | Sirius 40%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Sirius 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sirius as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sirius offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 0% | Sirius 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Jul 2020, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 31% | Draw 30% | Sirius 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Hammarby FF 0.96 / Sirius 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 0.933 / def 0.958 | Sirius attack 0.978 / def 1.054 | league avg home 0.972 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Sirius (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Sirius xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Sirius kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Sirius kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 July 2020 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Sirius?
Hammarby FF 0 - 0 Sirius.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Sirius part of?
Hammarby FF vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 31% chance of winning, Sirius a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Hammarby FF and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Sirius?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hammarby FF and Sirius in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Sirius (all comps): 3W-2D-1L in 6 | 1.83 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hammarby FF's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Sirius's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. The same calculation in reverse, Sirius's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
31%
3.27
30%
3.34
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.09
1.13
Sirius xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
10%
10.16
15%
6.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 14.0 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.13 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hammarby FF come into this having played 6 games, going 2W 1D 3L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Hammarby FF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sirius sit at 1.83 PPG from 6 outings (3W 2D 1L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sirius, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sirius carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Hammarby FF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Early Season
Sirius
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Sirius in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 games (1.17 PPG), while Sirius have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 (1.83 PPG).
Have Hammarby FF or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sirius in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Sirius have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2022, when Hammarby FF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting Sirius specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Hammarby FF
2
Draws
2
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 6, Sirius have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Sirius 2-0 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Sirius?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 33%, Sirius 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Hammarby FF) and 67% (Sirius). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Hammarby FF have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Sirius?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 67% of Sirius's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hammarby FF vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Hammarby FF's matches and 67% of Sirius's.
Do Hammarby FF and Sirius tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Sirius in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hammarby FF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 7, as Hammarby FF and Sirius drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 0.96 xG and Sirius 1.13 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hammarby FF fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Sirius landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 0.93 / defence 0.96 against Sirius attack 0.98 / defence 1.05, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 31% | Draw 30% | Sirius 40%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 50%, Sirius 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sirius's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sirius arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hammarby FF managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Sirius managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.