Hammarby FF 2-0 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hammarby FF host Mjallby AIF at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 15 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hammarby FF at Tele2 Arena this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Hammarby FF are significantly better at Tele2 Arena than their overall form suggests.
Mjallby AIF — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Mjallby AIF away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hammarby FF 2.00 PPG, Mjallby AIF 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Hammarby FF, 1 for Mjallby AIF and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Mjallby AIF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Mjallby AIF in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 65% versus Mjallby AIF 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 60% | Mjallby AIF 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.23 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.250 / defence 1.018 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.107 / defence 0.786. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.279. Mjallby AIF's defence strength of 0.786 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 32 Hammarby FF games / 32 Mjallby AIF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 32% | Draw 26% | Mjallby AIF 42%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Mjallby AIF 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Hammarby FF 60% | Mjallby AIF 30%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Friday 15 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 32% | Draw 26% | Mjallby AIF 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Hammarby FF 1.23 / Mjallby AIF 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.250 / def 1.018 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.107 / def 0.786 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Mjallby AIF xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 14:00 on Friday 15 April 2022 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Hammarby FF 2 - 0 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 32% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF?
Record (1 meetings): Hammarby FF 0W | Draws 0 | Mjallby AIF 1W.
What form are Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hammarby FF's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
32%
3.12
26%
3.87
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.67
1.44
Mjallby AIF xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
8%
13.17
12%
8.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.44 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hammarby FF come into this having played 60 games, going 25W 19D 16L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.42 PPG from 60 outings (22W 19D 19L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hammarby FF on 1.57 PPG, Mjallby AIF on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hammarby FF's home form reads 15W 12D 3L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.23 points per game from 30 outings (9W 10D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.37 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hammarby FF have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Current Season
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 25W 19D 16L in their last 60 games (1.57 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 22W 19D 19L in their last 60 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Hammarby FF's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 1.90 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Hammarby FF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting Mjallby AIF specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Hammarby FF
1
Draws
4
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 5, Mjallby AIF have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Hammarby FF 3-0 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 63%, Mjallby AIF 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Hammarby FF) and 47% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Mjallby AIF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Hammarby FF's games and 50% of Mjallby AIF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Hammarby FF's recent games and 47% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hammarby FF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Mjallby AIF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Mjallby AIF 2-0 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.23 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.44 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Mjallby AIF landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.25 / defence 1.02 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.11 / defence 0.79, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 32% | Draw 26% | Mjallby AIF 42%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Hammarby FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 60%, Mjallby AIF 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.57 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.