Hammarby FF 2-1 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Malmo FF at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tele2 Arena plays host to Hammarby FF versus Malmo FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 29 August 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Hammarby FF (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF at Tele2 Arena this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Malmo FF have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Malmo FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Malmo FF have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Malmo FF are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Hammarby FF register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Malmo FF in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Hammarby FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 26% of cases; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Malmo FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hammarby FF 67% and Malmo FF 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hammarby FF 61% | Malmo FF 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.44 xG and Malmo FF 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.199 / defence 1.144 | Malmo FF attack 1.388 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.079. Malmo FF have an above-average attack strength of 1.388 — the away xG of 1.71 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Hammarby FF games / 46 Malmo FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 31% | Draw 26% | Malmo FF 43%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Malmo FF 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Malmo FF are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Malmo FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 70% | Malmo FF 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 31% | Draw 26% | Malmo FF 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Hammarby FF 1.44 / Malmo FF 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.199 / def 1.144 | Malmo FF attack 1.388 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Malmo FF xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF?
Hammarby FF 2 - 1 Malmo FF.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF part of?
Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 31% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Hammarby FF and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Malmo FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hammarby FF and Malmo FF in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Malmo FF (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Hammarby FF's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Malmo FF's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Malmo FF's attack (1.39x) against Hammarby FF's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
31%
3.22
26%
3.81
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
3.15
1.71
Malmo FF xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
18%
5.55
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
6%
17.88
10%
9.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.5 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.71 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 46 outings, Hammarby FF have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 16W 17D 13L record — W-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Malmo FF's form line: 27W 12D 7L from 46 games, 2.02 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Malmo FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Malmo FF are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hammarby FF.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hammarby FF have posted 1.57 PPG from 23 outings (8W 12D 3L).
On the road, Malmo FF have gone 10W 7D 6L from 23 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Malmo FF's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 2.17 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hammarby FF have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Malmo FF in 63%.
Last 46 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
Malmo FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 16W 17D 13L in their last 46 games (1.41 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 27W 12D 7L in their last 46 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Malmo FF away?
Malmo FF's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 1.57 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Hammarby FF go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hammarby FF won 4-1 on 17 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hammarby FF have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Malmo FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hammarby FF
3
Draws
3
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Malmo FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 4, Malmo FF have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Hammarby FF 4-1 Malmo FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Malmo FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for Hammarby FF, 65% for Malmo FF — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Hammarby FF) and 65% (Malmo FF).
On the defensive side: Malmo FF in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Malmo FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Hammarby FF's games and 65% of Malmo FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Hammarby FF's recent games and 65% of Malmo FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hammarby FF and Malmo FF tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hammarby FF defy the odds to beat Malmo FF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Malmo FF 2-1 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.44 xG and Malmo FF 1.71 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.20 / defence 1.14 against Malmo FF attack 1.39 / defence 0.86, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 31% | Draw 26% | Malmo FF 43%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Hammarby FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 61%, Malmo FF 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Malmo FF's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.41. Form was overturned, with Hammarby FF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Malmo FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.