Hammarby FF 3-3 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm meet at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 May 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hammarby FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Tele2 Arena, Hammarby FF have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Hammarby FF are significantly better at Tele2 Arena than their overall form suggests.
AIK Stockholm have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
AIK Stockholm away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Hammarby FF, 1.80 for AIK Stockholm — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Hammarby FF, 0 for AIK Stockholm and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Hammarby FF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Hammarby FF — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
AIK Stockholm — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 65% versus AIK Stockholm 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 60% | AIK Stockholm 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.71 xG and AIK Stockholm 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.138 / defence 0.864 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.047 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.023. Data: 37 Hammarby FF games / 38 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 56% | Draw 24% | AIK Stockholm 20%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | AIK Stockholm 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Hammarby FF (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hammarby FF are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Hammarby FF 60% | AIK Stockholm 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 56% | Draw 24% | AIK Stockholm 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 49% | xG Hammarby FF 1.71 / AIK Stockholm 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.138 / def 0.864 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.047 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
0.93
AIK Stockholm xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Hammarby FF 3 - 3 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 56% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm?
Record (1 meetings): Hammarby FF 1W | Draws 0 | AIK Stockholm 0W.
What form are Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hammarby FF's attack rating (1.14) and AIK Stockholm's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AIK Stockholm's attack (1.05x) against Hammarby FF's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
56%
1.79
24%
4.18
20%
4.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.63
0.93
AIK Stockholm xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
4.92
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
18%
5.50
Win to Nil
22%
4.52
4%
27.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.4 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 0.93 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hammarby FF's recent record stands at 25W 19D 16L from 60 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-W in the last five.
AIK Stockholm, meanwhile, have gone 28W 14D 18L across 60 games — 1.63 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Hammarby FF against 1.63 for AIK Stockholm. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hammarby FF have managed 15W 12D 3L from 30 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AIK Stockholm's away record stands at 9W 10D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.25 scored and 0.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hammarby FF have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Current Season
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 25W 19D 16L in their last 60 games (1.57 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 28W 14D 18L in their last 60 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Hammarby FF's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 1.90 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hammarby FF have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against AIK Stockholm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hammarby FF
3
Draws
3
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 4, AIK Stockholm have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Hammarby FF 1-2 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
AIK Stockholm see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 63%, AIK Stockholm 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Hammarby FF) and 37% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play AIK Stockholm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 43% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Hammarby FF's recent games and 37% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm finished level at 3-3 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.71 xG and AIK Stockholm 0.93 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Hammarby FF beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AIK Stockholm outscored their 0.93 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.14 / defence 0.86 against AIK Stockholm attack 1.05 / defence 1.16, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 56% | Draw 24% | AIK Stockholm 20%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 60%, AIK Stockholm 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.57 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.