Halmstad 0-0 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Halmstad at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Halmstad vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Halmstad host Hammarby FF at Örjans Vall in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 4 June 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Halmstad have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Halmstad haven't played a Allsvenskan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Halmstad's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Örjans Vall this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hammarby FF away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Halmstad) versus 1.60 (Hammarby FF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Halmstad have won 0, Hammarby FF 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Halmstad trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Hammarby FF trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Halmstad 44% versus Hammarby FF 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Halmstad 19% | Hammarby FF 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Halmstad 1.35 xG and Hammarby FF 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Halmstad attack 0.735 / defence 0.900 | Hammarby FF attack 0.959 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.172. Halmstad's attack strength of 0.735 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Halmstad games / 41 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Halmstad 44% | Draw 29% | Hammarby FF 27%. Fair-value odds: Halmstad 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Hammarby FF 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Halmstad at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Halmstad offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Halmstad 50% | Hammarby FF 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Halmstad vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Örjans Vall • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jun 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Halmstad 44% | Draw 29% | Hammarby FF 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Halmstad 1.35 / Hammarby FF 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Halmstad attack 0.735 / def 0.900 | Hammarby FF attack 0.959 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Halmstad (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Halmstad xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Hammarby FF xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Halmstad vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Halmstad vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 4 June 2023 at Örjans Vall.
What was the final score in Halmstad vs Hammarby FF?
Halmstad 0 - 0 Hammarby FF.
Where is Halmstad vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Örjans Vall.
What competition is Halmstad vs Hammarby FF part of?
Halmstad vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Halmstad vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Halmstad a 44% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Halmstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Halmstad vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Halmstad and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Halmstad vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and Hammarby FF?
Record (2 meetings): Halmstad 0W | Draws 2 | Hammarby FF 0W.
What form are Halmstad and Hammarby FF in?
Halmstad (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Hammarby FF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Halmstad's attack rating (0.73) and Hammarby FF's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Halmstad's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Halmstad Win
44%
2.28
29%
3.48
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Halmstad xG
Total xG
2.36
1.01
Hammarby FF xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
16%
6.28
7%
14.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.9 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Halmstad vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Halmstad and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Halmstad and 1.01 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Halmstad vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 32 outings, Halmstad have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 7W 14D 11L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. Halmstad haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Hammarby FF's form line: 17W 9D 6L from 32 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Hammarby FF are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Halmstad.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Halmstad have posted 1.19 PPG from 16 outings (3W 10D 3L).
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 7W 4D 5L from 16 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Halmstad are averaging 0.72 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 2.03 scored and 0.94 conceded. Hammarby FF's attacking output running into Halmstad's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Hammarby FF in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Halmstad
Pre-Season
Hammarby FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Halmstad and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Halmstad have gone 7W 14D 11L in their last 32 games (1.09 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 17W 9D 6L in their last 32 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Halmstad at home or Hammarby FF away?
Hammarby FF's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Halmstad at home: 1.19 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Halmstad or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Halmstad have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Halmstad and Hammarby FF runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Halmstad's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Halmstad
5
Draws
2
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and Hammarby FF?
From 9 meetings on record, Halmstad have won 2, Hammarby FF have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Halmstad and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Hammarby FF 1-1 Halmstad.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Halmstad see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Halmstad 50%, Hammarby FF 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 12% for Halmstad and 44% for Hammarby FF.
On the defensive side: Halmstad keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Hammarby FF in 50%; Halmstad have failed to score in 38% of games; Hammarby FF in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Halmstad home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Halmstad play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Halmstad's recent matches and 31% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Halmstad vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Halmstad's recent games and 44% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Halmstad and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Halmstad have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Halmstad's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Halmstad and Hammarby FF finished level at 0-0 at Örjans Vall, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Halmstad 1.35 xG and Hammarby FF 1.01 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Halmstad fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Hammarby FF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Halmstad attack 0.73 / defence 0.90 against Hammarby FF attack 0.96 / defence 1.17, drawn from 10/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Halmstad 44% | Draw 29% | Hammarby FF 27%, with Halmstad to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Halmstad 19%, Hammarby FF 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Halmstad's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.