GIF Sundsvall 0-2 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GIF Sundsvall host IF Elfsborg at NP3 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 September 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, GIF Sundsvall stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall's home record at NP3 Arena: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — GIF Sundsvall are significantly better at NP3 Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IF Elfsborg have recorded 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour IF Elfsborg — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (0.90 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for GIF Sundsvall, 1 for IF Elfsborg and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2022, ended 1–3 with IF Elfsborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
GIF Sundsvall trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
IF Elfsborg trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 57% versus IF Elfsborg 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 51% | IF Elfsborg 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.20 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.842 / defence 1.736 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.945 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.193. Data: 21 GIF Sundsvall games / 51 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 23% | Draw 22% | IF Elfsborg 55%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 4.35 | Draw 4.55 | IF Elfsborg 1.82. The model has a clear lean to IF Elfsborg (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.20 / 1.96) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Elfsborg are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: GIF Sundsvall 70% | IF Elfsborg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 23% | Draw 22% | IF Elfsborg 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 60% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.20 / IF Elfsborg 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.842 / def 1.736 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.945 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.96
IF Elfsborg xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs IF Elfsborg?
GIF Sundsvall 0 - 2 IF Elfsborg.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs IF Elfsborg part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 23% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 55% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and IF Elfsborg?
Record (1 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 0W | Draws 0 | IF Elfsborg 1W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and IF Elfsborg in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (0.84) and IF Elfsborg's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 1.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
23%
4.33
22%
4.57
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
3.16
1.96
IF Elfsborg xG
4.33
23%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
14%
7.08
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
3%
30.64
17%
6.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.96 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs IF Elfsborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
GIF Sundsvall's recent record stands at 18W 9D 24L from 51 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg, meanwhile, have gone 23W 13D 15L across 51 games — 1.61 PPG, with D-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: GIF Sundsvall on 1.24 PPG, IF Elfsborg on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, GIF Sundsvall have managed 12W 4D 9L from 25 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IF Elfsborg's away record stands at 9W 6D 10L across 25 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.73 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 18W 9D 24L in their last 51 games (1.24 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 23W 13D 15L in their last 51 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or IF Elfsborg away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.60 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
GIF Sundsvall
0
Draws
2
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and IF Elfsborg?
From 2 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 0, IF Elfsborg have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2022, when GIF Sundsvall 0-2 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 56%, IF Elfsborg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (GIF Sundsvall) and 48% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of GIF Sundsvall's recent matches and 48% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 48% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Elfsborg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat GIF Sundsvall 0-2 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.20 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.96 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.84 / defence 1.74 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.94 / defence 0.93, drawn from 21/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 23% | Draw 22% | IF Elfsborg 55%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 51%, IF Elfsborg 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.24 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.