Gais vs Vasteras SK FK – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gais vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gais host Vasteras SK FK at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 November 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Gais — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gais's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gamla Ullevi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vasteras SK FK stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vasteras SK FK have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Vasteras SK FK — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Gais have won 4, Vasteras SK FK 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 1–0 with Gais winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Gais in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Vasteras SK FK in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 47% versus Vasteras SK FK 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gais 42% | Vasteras SK FK 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.44 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.955 / defence 0.681 | Vasteras SK FK attack 1.094 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.298. Gais's defence rating of 0.681 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Gais games / 27 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gais 48% | Draw 27% | Vasteras SK FK 25%. Fair-value odds: Gais 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Vasteras SK FK 4.00. Gais hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gais at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vasteras SK FK (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gais offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Gais 30% | Vasteras SK FK 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 48% | Draw 27% | Vasteras SK FK 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Gais 1.44 / Vasteras SK FK 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.955 / def 0.681 | Vasteras SK FK attack 1.094 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Gais (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Gais xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Vasteras SK FK xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Gais vs Vasteras SK FK is scheduled to kick off at 16:30 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Gamla Ullevi.
Where is Gais vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Gais vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 48% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Gais and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Vasteras SK FK?
Record (7 meetings): Gais 4W | Draws 0 | Vasteras SK FK 3W.
What form are Gais and Vasteras SK FK in?
Gais (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gais's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Vasteras SK FK's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus Gais's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
48%
2.08
27%
3.75
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Gais xG
Total xG
2.40
0.97
Vasteras SK FK xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
18%
5.48
6%
16.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Gais and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Gais and 0.97 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gais come into this having played 57 games, going 24W 17D 16L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vasteras SK FK sit at 1.91 PPG from 57 outings (33W 10D 14L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gais on 1.56 PPG, Vasteras SK FK on 1.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gais's home form reads 14W 9D 5L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Vasteras SK FK have taken 1.79 points per game from 28 outings (16W 2D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Gais are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.79 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Vasteras SK FK in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Blended
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gais and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 24W 17D 16L in their last 57 games (1.56 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 33W 10D 14L in their last 57 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Gais's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 1.82 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Gais or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gais have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Gais go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2021, when Vasteras SK FK won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gais's record when hosting Vasteras SK FK specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Gais
0
Draws
3
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Vasteras SK FK?
From 7 meetings on record, Gais have won 4, Vasteras SK FK have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gais and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Vasteras SK FK 0-1 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Gais and Vasteras SK FK?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gais 43%, Vasteras SK FK 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Gais) and 71% (Vasteras SK FK).
On the defensive side: Gais keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Gais have failed to score in 29% of games; Vasteras SK FK in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gais play Vasteras SK FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Gais's recent matches and 50% of Vasteras SK FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gais vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Gais's recent games and 71% of Vasteras SK FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gais and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Gais have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.