Djurgardens IF 3-0 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Djurgardens IF at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Djurgardens IF vs Orebro SK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF host Orebro SK at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 5 July 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Djurgardens IF — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tele2 Arena, Djurgardens IF have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Orebro SK have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Djurgardens IF have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Djurgardens IF have won 1, Orebro SK 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2020, ended 3–0 with Djurgardens IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Djurgardens IF in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 50% versus Orebro SK 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 55% | Orebro SK 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.91 xG and Orebro SK 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.034 / defence 0.764 | Orebro SK attack 0.909 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.092. Orebro SK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing Djurgardens IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Djurgardens IF's defence rating of 0.764 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Djurgardens IF games / 38 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 62% | Draw 26% | Orebro SK 12%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 1.61 | Draw 3.85 | Orebro SK 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Djurgardens IF (62%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Djurgardens IF are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Djurgardens IF 40% | Orebro SK 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Orebro SK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 5 Jul 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 62% | Draw 26% | Orebro SK 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 48% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.91 / Orebro SK 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.034 / def 0.764 | Orebro SK attack 0.909 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Orebro SK xG
48%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Orebro SK kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Orebro SK kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 5 July 2021 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Orebro SK?
Djurgardens IF 3 - 0 Orebro SK.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Orebro SK part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 62% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 12% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Orebro SK?
Record (2 meetings): Djurgardens IF 1W | Draws 0 | Orebro SK 1W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and Orebro SK in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Djurgardens IF's attack rating (1.03) and Orebro SK's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Djurgardens IF's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 1-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
62%
1.60
26%
3.88
12%
8.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.67
0.76
Orebro SK xG
1.60
62%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
8.43
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
15%
6.75
Win to Nil
29%
3.42
2%
56.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 10.1 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 0.76 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Orebro SK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Djurgardens IF's recent record stands at 19W 8D 11L from 38 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orebro SK, meanwhile, have gone 14W 7D 17L across 38 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Djurgardens IF by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Orebro SK heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Djurgardens IF have managed 10W 5D 4L from 19 games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Orebro SK's away record stands at 5W 3D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.11 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
Orebro SK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 19W 8D 11L in their last 38 games (1.71 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 14W 7D 17L in their last 38 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Orebro SK away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.84 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Orebro SK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Orebro SK in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Djurgardens IF and Orebro SK runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Djurgardens IF go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2020, when Djurgardens IF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Djurgardens IF's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Djurgardens IF
0
Draws
1
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Orebro SK?
From 4 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 3, Orebro SK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2021, when Orebro SK 0-1 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Orebro SK?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 53%, Orebro SK 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Djurgardens IF) and 58% (Orebro SK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 10% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Orebro SK in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play Orebro SK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 42% of Orebro SK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Djurgardens IF vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 58% of Orebro SK's.
Do Djurgardens IF and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Djurgardens IF run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Orebro SK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Orebro SK 3-0 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.91 xG and Orebro SK 0.76 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Djurgardens IF beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.03 / defence 0.76 against Orebro SK attack 0.91 / defence 1.27, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 62% | Draw 26% | Orebro SK 12%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 55%, Orebro SK 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Orebro SK's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.29. That form edge translated into the three points. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.