Djurgardens IF 1-0 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Varnamo at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Djurgardens IF vs IFK Varnamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF host IFK Varnamo at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 July 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Djurgardens IF — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Djurgardens IF's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Tele2 Arena this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Varnamo stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IFK Varnamo have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Djurgardens IF have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Djurgardens IF have won 2, IFK Varnamo 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 1–2 with IFK Varnamo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Djurgardens IF in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
IFK Varnamo in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 42% versus IFK Varnamo 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 46% | IFK Varnamo 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.04 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 0.860 / defence 0.926 | IFK Varnamo attack 1.186 / defence 0.712. League average goals — home 1.706 / away 1.346. IFK Varnamo's defence strength of 0.712 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 Djurgardens IF games / 43 IFK Varnamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 27% | Draw 26% | IFK Varnamo 47%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | IFK Varnamo 2.13. IFK Varnamo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IFK Varnamo are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Djurgardens IF (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Djurgardens IF 20% | IFK Varnamo 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Jul 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 27% | Draw 26% | IFK Varnamo 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.04 / IFK Varnamo 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 0.860 / def 0.926 | IFK Varnamo attack 1.186 / def 0.712 | league avg home 1.706 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.48
IFK Varnamo xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 14 July 2024 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs IFK Varnamo?
Djurgardens IF 1 - 0 IFK Varnamo.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs IFK Varnamo part of?
Djurgardens IF vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 27% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Djurgardens IF and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and IFK Varnamo?
Record (4 meetings): Djurgardens IF 2W | Draws 1 | IFK Varnamo 1W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and IFK Varnamo in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. IFK Varnamo (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Djurgardens IF's attack rating (0.86) and IFK Varnamo's defence rating (0.71), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Varnamo's attack versus Djurgardens IF's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
27%
3.74
26%
3.83
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.52
1.48
IFK Varnamo xG
3.74
27%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
6%
16.41
17%
6.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.9 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.48 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs IFK Varnamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Djurgardens IF's recent record stands at 24W 6D 13L from 43 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Varnamo, meanwhile, have gone 19W 5D 19L across 43 games — 1.44 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Djurgardens IF on 1.81 PPG, IFK Varnamo on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Djurgardens IF have managed 13W 3D 5L from 21 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Varnamo's away record stands at 12W 2D 7L across 21 trips, a 1.81 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.26 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
IFK Varnamo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 24W 6D 13L in their last 43 games (1.81 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 19W 5D 19L in their last 43 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or IFK Varnamo away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 2.00 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or IFK Varnamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, IFK Varnamo in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jul 2022, when Djurgardens IF won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Djurgardens IF's record when hosting IFK Varnamo specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Djurgardens IF
2
Draws
2
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and IFK Varnamo?
From 8 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 4, IFK Varnamo have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when Djurgardens IF 6-2 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and IFK Varnamo?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 29%, IFK Varnamo 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Djurgardens IF) and 57% (IFK Varnamo).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; IFK Varnamo in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play IFK Varnamo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 48% of IFK Varnamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Djurgardens IF vs IFK Varnamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Djurgardens IF's recent games and 57% of IFK Varnamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Djurgardens IF and IFK Varnamo tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, IFK Varnamo in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Djurgardens IF defy the odds to beat IFK Varnamo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat IFK Varnamo 1-0 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.04 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.48 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IFK Varnamo landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 0.86 / defence 0.93 against IFK Varnamo attack 1.19 / defence 0.71, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 27% | Draw 26% | IFK Varnamo 47%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Djurgardens IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 46%, IFK Varnamo 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.81 PPG, IFK Varnamo 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.